3 BIG THINGS TODAY, MARCH 15

CORN, BEANS LOWER IN OVERNIGHT TRADING; EXPORT SALES UP WEEK-TO-WEEK, MISS AVERAGES.

1. CORN, SOYBEANS LOWER AFTER USDA STOCKPILE PROJECTIONS TOP FORECASTS

Corn and soybeans were lower in overnight trading after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its outlook for global carryout of both crops beyond expectations.

World corn inventories at the end of the marketing year will total 220.7 million metric tons, topping forecasts for about 219 million tons, the USDA said in a Thursday report. Brazilian production is pegged at 91.5 million tons, well above industry estimates for just under 88 million tons

Soybean stockpiles globally will total 82.2 million metric tons, up from forecasts for about 81 million tons, the government said. The USDA pegged production at 108 million tons, beating expectations for 106 million.

Corn futures for May delivery fell 1½¢ to $3.65½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Soybean futures declined 5¾¢ to $10.05¼ a bushel in Chicago. Soy meal lost $1.90 to $326.60 a short ton, and soy oil declined 0.18¢ to 32.93¢ a pound. 

Wheat futures for May delivery fell a penny to $4.43 a bushel overnight. Kansas City futures declined ½¢ to $4.62 a bushel.

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2. EXPORT SALES REPORTS MIXED AS SALES RISE WEEK-TO-WEEK, MISS AVERAGES

The Department of Agriculture’s export sales report was mixed as it showed sales rose week-to-week for corn, beans, and wheat, but were down from the average.

Corn exporters sold 741,100 metric tons of the grain in the week that ended on March 2, the USDA said in a report on Thursday. That’s up 7% from the previous week but down 7% from the prior four-week average, according to the government.

Japan was the big buyer, taking 318,800 tons. South Korea was next on the list at 175,800 tons, and Mexico bought 165,000 tons. Saudi Arabia purchased 113,100 tons and Colombia took 61,700 tons.

Soybean sales totaled 485,500 tons, up 14% from a week earlier but down 8% from the average, according to the USDA.

Mexico was the biggest buyer at 151,500 tons, topping China, which bought 84,300 tons. Japan was in for 77,800 tons, Taiwan bought 70,900 tons and Indonesia purchased 70,100 tons.

Wheat exporters sold 391,600 tons of the grain, up 21% week-to-week but down 14% from the prior four-week average, the agency said.

Japan bought 56,400 tons, Bangladesh took 55,000 tons, Yemen purchased 50,000 tons, Mexico was in for 41,000 tons and the Philippines purchased 36,700 tons, according to the USDA.

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3. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MISSOURI, PARTS OF SEVERAL STATES

After several days of red-flag warnings from warm, dry weather, a freeze warning is now in effect for parts of the lower Midwest.

Much of Missouri, southern parts of Illinois and Indiana, and most of Kentucky are under a freeze warning this morning, according to the National Weather Service.

Temperatures are expected to fall well below freezing for a few nights in a row. Any uncovered plants including soft-red winter wheat in the area may suffer damage from the cold, the agency said.

“A cold Canadian high-pressure (system) will surge southeast across the area, setting the stage for a hard freeze over portions of the region late tonight and Saturday morning,” the NWS said in a statement early Thursday. “Low temperatures in the 20s will be common over the next several nights heading into next week.”

GRAIN CHARTS ARE TURNING NEGATIVE, ANALYST SAYS

Beans ended the week on a weak note, as the trade continued to price in yesterday’s bearish report.

The Chinese market was under pressure on liquidation last night, and that spilled into the U.S. market as well. Macro headwinds added to the negative tones as the crude and metal markets were under liquidation pressure all session long. It seems that some of the inflationary money that had been coming at the commodity markets recently is now leaving.

With both the world as well as the U.S. balance sheets expected to get worse over the coming months, it will be hard for rallies to be sustained without a major weather issue. 

The charts are turning negative and that will only add to the bearish tone. We do not expect higher prices for soybeans in the short or medium term. We suggest this market is on the path to hit $8.84 for the early-summer low basis the November contract. We do see a good chance for a rally in the July/August time frame (one that does not hold). But our key focus is on the sharply lower pricing expected over the next three months.

If you have not yet, we continue to urge sales on all remaining old crop and work on new crop. We do not want to have to bet the farm, a literal issue this year, by hoping for a summer rally by turning down the chance to sell +$10.00 beans.
 

LEAN HOG COMMENTARY

Hog futures did well this week, with a 45¢ gain on the books for the dominant June contract. Considering the bird flu news, three cases this week, that was good. While some would suggest bird flu is bullish from consumers turning away from poultry, the opposite is more likely. U.S. consumers generally have little actual change in meat demand based on meat safety fears.

The actual impact to pork is negative. If there are export bans enacted, then that means more chicken left in the U.S. to compete against pork. The phrase, “...sell it or smell it” is apt here.

According to USDA’s weekly estimate that comes out at 1 p.m., this week’s kill will run 2.313 million head. That would be 3.4% over last year, right next to the 3.6% gain seen over the previous six weeks. As of two weeks ago, weights are even with last year. Total supply this week, slaughter x weights, will total 491.1 million pounds. That would be 3.3% over last year. The recent six weeks have run 3.5% over.

Smithfield Foods reported that several thousand hogs in a hog farm in Laverne, Oklahoma, were killed due to the wildfires. The breeding herd farm in question housed a total of 45,000 head. If all those sows were killed, you are looking at something like 1.1 million head of potential market hogs lost on an annual basis assuming about 25 pigs per litter per year. Assuming a 5,000-sow loss, you would be looking at 125,000 head for the whole year.

It may seem heartless to say but with these events, the headlines and news stories are usually more threatening to supply than the actual loss in head from a market impacting basis.

Perhaps the biggest issue here is this week's action may have tested the support from a Head and Shoulders top formation on the charts. The potential H&S top in the cattle mentioned three weeks ago was never activated by a close below a similar support level. Next week’s trade will be important to monitor.

USDA reported the monthly meat export numbers today, converted over from the Census Bureau data. This is separate from the normal weekly export numbers that only include carcass meat, and that may be a little incomplete. The monthly meat trade release is considered the solid data. Pork exports in January ran 457.958 million pounds. That was 20% over last year. This is even better than the 9% to 15% year-over-year gains posted in the previous three months. Pork imports also held good news. At 83.878 million, they ran 15% under last year. That was better than the 4% to 11% year-over-year declines from the previous three months. More exports and fewer imports – positive news.

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Rich Nelson
Allendale Inc.
815-578-6161
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Our biggest agenda is extension service -Cynthia Umoru

Cynthia Mosunmola Umoru, is the CEO of Honeysuckle PTL Ventures and she is a farmer , one of the most successful ones in Nigeria. As a young girl her passion was to study Medicine but was forced to attend another university due to political violence in the north. It was while studying zoology in the university that her interest in agriculture grew. Refusing to limit herself, she took courses in fisheries, and multi-level marketing.

In her final year in the university, armed with the zeal to chart a new course, be her own boss she launched Honeysuckles PTL Ventures with the main aim of selling processed food produce.  Honeysuckle focuses on high quality food products using modern packaging and fast delivery, and has its own farms and ponds.

Today we present to you a passionate Nigerian who sees herself as an agrovangelist. She is the technical adviser to the minister of Agriculture on Youth and Women

What prompted you to be a farmer?

My journey started straight out of college about 13 years ago. I decided to venture into agribusiness. I did a vertical integration in agricultural production. So we produce Chicken, Snails, Catfish. Now we are looking into vegetables and some cash crops.

Can you take us on a journey into the food business?

We have gone through some exciting time, a phenomenal learning curve where a green horn out of the university ventures into enterprise, tried getting clients, getting markets, raising finance, going bankrupt, starting all over again, acquiring land and so many other things but I must say it’s been a very exciting journey. Every experience is a significant learning curve for me. One that has transitioned into being a young lady who has found her calling in the agribusiness space, I have become extremely passionate about food, farming and the community at large. there’s a greater burden to actually impact the food space in Nigeria with focus on primary production, value addition and now we have discussing a lot about export and import substitution.

As the Technical adviser to the Honorable Minister of Agriculture on Youth and Women, can you tell us about the steps currently undertaken to engage the youths in Agribusiness?

From the government’s perspective, it is a continuous process. We are in a society where we want the magic wand to be raised and things just happen overnight. The Federal Government has put some policies in place to actually build the capacity of young men and women especially around areas of mechanisation, skills development for productivity in the agric sector. So you are going to go across varying value chains though the requirements vary.

One of the biggest agenda on the table is how we invest in extension service proviso, within the sector. there is the Npower project running from the office of the Vice President that will recruit and train, about 30, 000 extension service providers in the first phase, though the phase has been approved to scale to a 100,000 hopefully in the next 3 to 5 years.

There is a huge skills gap that is deficit in the agricultural sector, where young people who go to the university acquire certain skills that may not be relevant in the agric sector space so one of the things the government is looking into doing is how they create in partnership with the state government to create training programmes that will actually get the young people into the agribusiness space. Skills like mechanization, tractor operation, farm management, farm business, book-record keeping, and other of those skills will be given and some other programs will be across varying value chain to help young people actually begin to leverage the opportunities and potentials in the agricultural sector. So there are a lot of plans but they will be phased, they all can’t be rolled out in one sweep.

What is your advice to the youths?

Like I will say to anyone who wants to venture into any enterprise at all, life is in stages, and you must enjoy every phase on the way to where you are going. There is need for resilience. We are naturally tenacious people but I will recommend that we seek information, knowledge is power, knowledge is key. Gain requisite knowledge the enterprise you are going into, do not go into that journey blinding, there are mentors, there are people who towed that line before, it is important that you get all the support you need, to leverage people’s experience, read, you know, go online, go for short course, programs, improve on your skill set then your staying power in the business will be elongated.

AgroNigeria extends NAA 2016/17 competition deadline

In line with efforts to promote active participation of Nigerian youths in the ongoing Nigerian Agriculture Awards 2016/2017 Project and Essay Competition, AgroNigeria has extended the timeline to the March 23, 2017.

According to the organisers, the competition themed “Building a Crop of Young Agroprenuers”, which commenced on February 20, 2017 has been extended till the March 23rd 2017.

They added that the extension would allow more participants employ their ingenuity to effectively contribute to the development of the agricultural sector.

The competition is open to Corp members/students in tertiary institutions and secondary schools. Interested participants are advised to visit www.agronigeria.com.ng for more information.

SOKOTO CARROT FARMERS PUSH FOR SEEDS, PROCESSING PLANT

Sokoto is famed as a key producer of carrot, a popular root vegetable which experts have noted to be very rich in Vitamin A, dietary fibre, antioxidants, and minerals.

It is cultivated in Kware, Ilela, Goronyo, Wamakko, Gada and Dange Shuni local government areas of the state.

On a weekly basis, not less than 10 trailer loads of 400-450 sacks of carrot are said to leave Sokoto to other states across Nigeria.

However, carrot farmers in the state have stressed the need for a processing factory in the state for value addition and adequate utilisation of carrot for local consumption and export.

“We need a carrot processing factory so that we can sufficiently use carrot as ingredient for making soap, juice, pomade and medicine as it is being done in places like Ghana,” Secretary, Sokoto Carrot Farmers and Sellers Co-operative Union, Alhaji Malami Muhammad,  said.

He observed that carrot is more popular than many other vegetables in the state. “It is second only to cabbage in demand and supply,” he said.

The carrot farmers/sellers scribe   said: “Carrot farming is  a major employment creation sector with many youths involved in it. We have over 1,000 youths, who engage in various activities around carrot farming and trading  from which they earn their living.

According to him, the carrot farmers /sellers union has over 4,000 members in the state.

He added: “Medical experts have even assisted to decongest our carrot markets by advising people to consume it to enhance their sight, so we have more and more patronage.”

Muhammad, however, lamented that the seed they use, is not available in Nigeria but has to be imported from France.

“There is only one dealer from Zaria across Nigeria, who is importing the seed from France and has complete monopoly of the market thereby dictating the price,” he disclosed.

Muhammad said a 100g sachet of carrot seed which hitherto  cost just N600 now goes for N4,000 in the market.

“This is due to its scarcity and the Nigerian seed is substandard. The foreign seed is sweeter and consumed more,” he stated.

He called on the state government to provide loan to farmers or the co-operative to purchase enough seeds for sale to farmers at subsided rate.

On carrot cultivation,  the farmer who noted that it is a dry season vegetable, explained that it grows after the rainy season – during the harmattan.

 “It takes three months to grow to appreciable size and level and can be allowed to remain without harvesting for as long  as 10 months,” he said.

On challenges, Muhammad  said carrot at its early stage of growth faced the problem of locusts which ravage its plants.

“Farmers have to have pesticides before even planting the seed,” he added.

He also said when there is large supply, farmers lose a lot from glut.

The secretary called on carrot farmers to continue farming the produce despite the dearth of seedling because of its health and economic values.

Musa Garba who hawks carrot on a wheelbarrow, said the demand for the vegetable is high.

“In a day , I get N1,000 from a  N2,000 sack I buy. People consume  it a lot especially during the hot season. It is the season now, so I abandoned sugarcane hawking for carrot, that’s what many of us do. As far as we the hawkers are concerned, during this time, carrot overtakes sugarcane.”

He   said they need to constantly water the carrots to keep it fresh.

Garba, however, said during rainy season supply diminished