TRUMP CONSIDERS ALLOWING IN ARGENTINE BIODIESEL, BEEF.

PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil -- President Trump has conditioned the entrance of Argentinian biodiesel and beef into the American market.

In May, the U.S. officially announced that it suspected antidumping of Argentinian biodiesel, and it would suspend those biodiesel imports until it ends an investigation.

Separately, Argentina’s beef had a prior allowance for imports set by the Obama administration, but it is now under revision by Trump’s White House.

In the meantime, as the Argentinian authorities pressure to get the biodiesel barrier lifted, U.S. officials have come up with a trade compromise.

The U.S. is willing to reopen its borders to Argentina’s biodiesel if that South American country approved seed developed by U.S. companies on a quicker time frame.

The deals that could theoretically hurt domestic sales for U.S. meat producers and impact the U.S. biodiesel market are seen as two very differrent cases, according to Don Roose, president of US Commodities Inc. (West Des Moines, Iowa).

The trade practice is seen as unfair on biodiesel imports, as the U.S. program was to be a program to use oil products – not end products – to meet the standards. Thus, the imports of U.S. vegoil will probably need to increase to satisfy the biodiesel mandate. The beef imports from Argentina are a completely different situation. For now, the U.S. believes the trade practices are fair, explains Roose in an email to Agriculture.com.

The conditions, confirmed by U.S. Trade Secretary Wilbur Ross, are the faster approvals of seed and changing the criteria for the releases. The result of those negotiations would be known after a meeting between Ross and Argentina Production Minister Francisco Cabrera.

The government of Argentina already sent a bill to Congress last year with a new seed law that would get faster releases and would enforce payments of royalties. Currently, Argentinian farmers are not used to paying royalties when they do personal use of the seeds they grew. The new law would impose fines.

Regarding the biodiesel dispute, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus, the same companies that have biofuel plants in Argentina and the U.S., have issued arguments in favor of the imports, testifying in the case at the U.S. Department of Commerce.

For both companies, the American biodiesel market grows because of the official mandate of incorporating biofuels and the imports are in line to follow U.S. legislation. They do not see any “unfair competition.”

Nearly 90% of Argentina's biodiesel exports go to the U.S. with a value of $ 1.2 billion in 2016. The sales had grown 150% in that year compared with 2015.
“The biodiesel industry in Argentina would be seriously hurt if the U.S. decides to cut biodiesel imports,” analyzed Pablo Adreani, a market expert from AgriPac, a consultancy in the city of Córdoba, for Agriculture.com. Even with the investigation, the imports continued this year with a volume of 504,000 metric tons. For Adreani, the imports would continue until a decision is made and would reach 608,840 tons by the end of June.

Argentinian beef was banned in the U.S. in 2001 because of a mad cow disease outbreak of that time.The average volume exported annually was 35,000 tons with a quota of 20,000 tons duty-free. The beef was then used for hamburgers, but experts now see a possibility of exporting higher value and niche products, like kosher. BY LUIS VIEIRA.

THE U.S DOLLAR IS LOWER, HELPING AG COMMODITIES PUSH HIGHER.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- The CME Group’s farm futures finish off the daily highs, but still stronger, as extreme heat forecasts heat up risk premium talk.

At the close, the July corn futures finished 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.77 1/4, while December futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.95 3/4.

July soybean futures settled 1 1/2¢ higher at $9.23, November soybean futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $9.31.

July wheat futures finished 6 1/4¢ higher at $4.35 3/4.

July soy meal futures finished $0.50 per short ton higher at $301.10. July soy oil futures closed $0.08 higher at 31.39¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.74 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.

Michael Rusch, Sales Director- Ag/Commercial | Stewart-Peterson, says that the corn futures are staging a rally, sending contracts through their range highs that served as a resistance barrier since early March.

"Dec corn is making the biggest technical move, up 6 cents to 3.98, above its double top at 3.95-3/4. Jul corn is up 6-3/4 cents to 3.79-3/4, eclipsing that contract’s range high of 3.79-1/2,” Rusch says.
Rusch adds, "Dryness in ND and SD supporting spring wheat, funds heavily short, dollar index making new lows, above normal temps in the forecast for the next 2 weeks. Our advisors were a bit surprised expecting corn to be lower due to better than expected crop conditions yesterday.Double digit gains in wheat and soybeans are also noted."

“We believe that this is a sign of long-awaited short-covering by the funds as weather forecasts begin to warrant weather premium across the grain and oilseed complex,” Rusch says.

Crop progress is adequate, but widely variable following a delayed planting program in the eastern Corn Belt, and now drying conditions in the central and northern Corn Belt, Rusch says.

Soybean futures jumped higher in early trade, as contracts attempt to climb back to their previous trading ranges following a price fallout to end the month of May, Rusch says.

Jul beans peaked at 9.34-1/4 on gains of 9-3/4 cents; Nov got to 9.39-3/4 on gains of 11-3/4 cents before stalling.

“High heat forecast for the Dakotas and depleted top soil moisture being reported in NE and IA where emergence in some counties is already questionable, is supporting today’s market strength. The revival precedes Friday’s USDA monthly Supply/Demand reports,” Rusch says.

Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets close up slightly.
At the close, the July corn futures settled ¼¢ higher at $3.73, and December futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.92.

July soybean futures finished ¾¢ higher at $9.22; soybean futures settled 2½¢ higher at $9.28.
July wheat futures finished unchanged at $4.29.
July soy meal futures closed $1.30 per short ton lower at $300.60. July soy oil futures closed 0.30¢ higher at 31.31¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 36¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.
Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy grain analyst, says the markets seem to be struggling for new information at the moment.

“Additionally, the heavy supplies from South America continue to limit any upside, despite concerns over eastern Belt wetness and dryness in the Plains,” Meyer says.

On Monday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year, and 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1. BY  MIKE MCGINNIS.

FARMLAND SALES HARD TO FIND AS GROWERS HOLD TIGHT, KEEPING LAND VALUE FAIRLY STABLE.

Four years ago there wasn’t enough farmland to go around. Growers were looking to expand their holdings, outside investors who’d never set foot in the state of Iowa much less in a cornfield, and people looking to bolster their retirement funds were snapping up land as fast as aging farmers hoping to spend their retirement on a Florida beach could sell it.

It was a perfect storm for both sellers and buyers.

Things are much different today, brokers told Successful Farming. Demand is still strong, but nobody’s selling as land values have declined amid falling crop prices, leading to what dealers are saying is the fewest available farms for sale in a generation. That, in turn, has kept prices afloat despite declining crop futures.

“We don’t have very much for sale,” said Sam Kain, the national sales manager for Farmers National in West Des Moines, Iowa. “I’ve been doing this for 30 years and this is as few as I’ve ever seen. Farmers had a few good years, the conservative ones anyway, were able to put money aside and now there’s no pressure to sell, at least not for the time being. All we’re seeing selling is estates.”

The lack of available land has kept the price of farms up despite corn prices being down by more than half from their peaks in 2012. The average per-acre value of farmland in the U.S. in 2016 was $3,010 an acre, down from only $3,010 an acre the prior year.

In Iowa and Illinois, the biggest producers of both corn and soybeans, the average price of farmland was $7,850 and $7,400, respectively. The value in Iowa fell 1.9% year-over-year while Illinois prices declined 1.3%. Missouri and Wisconsin land values rose while those in Minnesota and Indiana were unchanged.

“The lack of supply is keeping farmland values fairly stable,” said David Klein, the vice president and managing broker of Soy Capital in Bloomington, Illinois.

Land values are holding steady likely because farmers who saw they could get $12,000 an acre for less-than-stellar land in 2012 or 2013 are now only being offered $8,000 to $10,000. While that would’ve been a pretty penny prior to the boom five years ago, it doesn’t carry the same luster it once did.

The good news for farmers looking to purchase more land is that their competitors – investors – aren’t in the market right now because the rate of return on the land isn’t strong like it was in 2012 when corn and soybean prices were high, Klein said.

That means some farms, though many with marginal land, can be had for a decent price. Also popular is land on which wind farms can be built, especially in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, said Klein.
“The biggest price decreases have been in the farmland that’s kind of like a fixer-upper house, which can use some cleaning up and has drainage issues or needs conservation work to give it some curb appeal,” he said. “The I-states have a lot of expansion projects going on right now. If you took a flight to central Illinois just north of Decatur, there are wind turbine foundations being built.”

Companies are building wind farms in northwestern Iowa, and more are on the way, Klein said.
Real estate industry professionals said the best bet for growers who want to expand their holdings by purchasing land close to their current farms is getting to know their neighbors in case something comes available. Hiring a broker also doesn’t hurt because they have resources most people don’t.
It’s unlikely, however, that growers will find many good deals in the current environment of strong demand and little availability, said Ernie Goss, an economics professor at Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska.

Goss said surveys conducted by his department are showing that farmland prices will hold up better than income as commodity futures likely won’t rise much for at least a couple of years unless there’s a significant weather event. Foreclosures haven’t increased to an alarming degree, so those waiting for their neighbors to throw in the towel might have to wait a long time.

It’s likely those who want to buy farms and have a chance to do so know they aren’t getting the best deal in the history of land transactions, but many are willing to spend the money to get what they want as long as the land is close to their current holdings and decent quality.

Demand for land likely will stay strong for a while as long as interest rate are still low and consolidation within the industry continues, Klein said. That means those hoping to expand will have to keep a keen eye out for anything in their area that becomes available since their neighbors are holding tight to their farms.

“Overall, farmland values have remained stable through the first half of the year,” Klein said. “Stabilizing crop prices, limited supply, and low interest rates are contributing to land prices stabilizing, as are areas that have alternate uses rather than just agricultural. The highest quality square tillable farms are selling very well, but there are so few available.” BY TONY DREIBUS.

WITH NAFTA ON THE HORIZON, U.S DEALS WITH CANADA AND MEXICO AG ISSUES.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue went north and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross looked south as the Trump administration focused on North American food and farm trade issues. Based on “quite meaningful” progress, Ross allowed an additional 24 hours to complete a deal on sugar imports from Mexico, while Perdue discussed the future of two-way farm trade with Canadian Agriculture Minister Lawrence Macaulay.

The two North American countries are the heart of U.S. agricultural trade. They account for one third of all U.S. imports and exports of food and ag products, a combined $83.7 billion of the estimated $251.5 billion in U.S. ag trade this fiscal year. While China is the No. 1 market for U.S. farm exports, Canada is the largest U.S. food and ag trade partner, Canadian officials noted in a statement about the Macaulay-Perdue meeting in Toronto.

Food and ag trade with Canada is forecast for a total of $42.7 billion, with the U.S. sending $21 billion to its northern neighbor and importing $21.7 billion of Canadian goods. Mexico-U.S. trade is estimated at $41 billion, some $18.5 billion of it being U.S. goods shipped south and $22.5 billion in Mexican food and ag going to U.S. buyers. Mexico is the second-largest U.S. ag trade partner, followed by the EU and China.

A month ago, Ross threatened to collect antidumping and countervailing duties on sugar from Mexico beginning on June 5 unless the country agreed to limit its shipments. “The two sides have come together in quite meaningful ways, but there remain a few technical details to work out,” said Ross in extending the deadline for agreement to Tuesday. “We are quite optimistic that our two nations are on the precipice of an agreement we can all support, and so have decided that a short extension of the deadline is in everyone’s best interest.”

An agreement would resolve the dispute before negotiations begin later this year, possibly in mid-August, to revamp the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. farm groups hope the talks result in larger sales but fear disruptions in trade with two leading countries.

Mexico is the largest U.S. sugar supplier, estimated by USDA to provide 37% of imports this year. NAFTA called for gradual liberalization in sweetener trade between the countries. In 2014, U.S. growers and processors accused Mexico of dumping sugar at unfairly low prices. The U.S.

government agreed, which led to an agreement to limit shipments in exchange for suspension of the tariffs. The Commerce Department decided last December that the 2014 agreement was not working.
Citing two unnamed sources, Reuters said said the two countries “were working on final details of a deal.”

After meeting his Canadian counterpart, Perdue said the session was “very frank, like family members discussing some things that are not necessarily comfortable. We laid out a great framework to begin renegotiating NAFTA.” U.S. issues included Canada’s dairy support system, which restricts U.S. imports, and a wheat grading system that U.S. farmers say effectively prevents imports by giving them too low a value. “And also certain provincial wine issues, where wines are not displayed out in front where other Canadian wine is,” said Perdue. The recent spat over ultrafiltered milk is not a NAFTA issue, said the secretary, adding, “While we didn’t try to negotiate back and forth, I think it was clearly understood that we consider all options on the table, and we’ll pursue them in the best interests of U.S. producers.”

In a statement, Macaulay said both sides want to strengthen the agricultural trade relationship. “I’m confident that we can reinforce this relationship in a balanced manner, allowing us to boost farmers’ bottom lines and create good, middle-class jobs on both sides of the border,” he said.

On Twitter, Perdue said he had “friendly but frank talk w/Minister @L_MacAulay about U.S. exports to Canada. Foundation for future negotiations w/our friend to the north.” Macaulay tweeted, “Productive discussions today with our key trading partner and friends. @USDA @SecretarySonny, looking forward to working with you.” Perdue replied, “Very productive, I agree. Great discussion and we look forward to more of them.” BY CHUCK ABBOTT.