THE NEXT MONTH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR DISEASE DEVELOPMENT.

Recent cold, wet field conditions and fluctuations in soil temperatures have put early-planted corn at risk for seedling disease, and there may be considerations for replant in some areas.

“It’s been a mixed bag across the country,” says Randy Hagen, knowledge transfer manager at Monsanto.

“Cold soil temperatures and episodes of recent rainfall are especially favorable for some of the most common and damaging seedling diseases favored by cold wet conditions,” says Tamra Jackson-Ziems, University of Nebraska (U of N) Extension plant pathologist in a U of N Cropwatch article. “Numerous seedling diseases can take advantage of any of these conditions.”

Monitor seedling emergence and stand establishment in the coming weeks so diseases can be detected early.

Seedling diseases can be caused by any of several common soilborne organisms, such as Pythium, Fusarium, Rhizoctonia, or parasitic nematodes. To complicate things, seedling diseases can be confused with insect injury, herbicide damage, planting problems, or environmental stresses that often have similar symptoms, says Jackson-Ziems.
Look for these symptoms of seedling diseases:

• Rotted seed prior to germination   
• Rotted or discolored seedlings after germination prior to emergence
• Postemergence seedling damping off 
• Root or hypocotyl decay

At least 14 species of Pythium have been identified that can cause seedling blight and root rot. These pathogens require excessive moisture, says Jackson-Ziems.

“The pathogen overwinters in soil and infected plant debris by producing thick-walled oospores that can survive for several years in the absence of a suitable host and favorable weather conditions. In addition to wet soil conditions, some species of Pythium are favored by cold soil conditions and are most likely to cause seed and seedling diseases lately,” says Jackson-Ziems.

At least six Fusarium species can cause seedling diseases and root rots. Stressed plants due to weather extremes (temperature and moisture), herbicide damage, and physical injury are more prone to infection and disease caused by Fusarium species, says Jackson-Ziems.

“Rhizoctonia species can also cause seedling diseases, but tend to be more common in drier growing conditions,” says Jackson-Ziems. “Rhizoctonia tends to cause reddish-brown lesions that can girdle and rot off roots. Root and crown rot may be severe enough to cause seedling death.”

Management

The most common method for disease management is the use of seed treatment fungicides.
In general, corn has protection from early disease because it’s been treated, says Hagen. Most seed corn is already treated with more than one seed treatment fungicide, often an insecticide, and, sometimes with a nematicide.

These products can provide protection against some of the pathogens that cause seedling diseases; however, they only provide protection during the first few weeks immediately after planting.

Scout fields

Diseases may still develop due to extended periods of inclement weather or if they are under severe pathogen pressure, says Jackson-Ziems.

The next month or so will be critical, says Hagen. “Look at field history, what has happened in your area, and what conditions are present today,” he says.

He recommends knowing what potential disease exists in your field. “Don’t wait until the last minute,” says Hagen. “Check your fields regularly, and ask your agronomist a lot of questions. Being aware is an important management tool in today’s world.”

Pay additional attention to areas that had standing water, warns Hagen. In places with a lot of standing water, there’s a higher risk of disease.

“If it is cold and wet, pay attention to that,” he says. “Those are potential signs for future diseases. But if it gets hotter and drier during the summer, that will go away.”

For some of those diseases, there’s nothing you can do, says Hagen. But knowing that history will help your to make management decisions next year.

If you’re considering replant, don’t make a snap decision. “Wait on replant until it’s a time where it makes sense,” says Hagen.

So far, replant has been minimal throughout the Midwest, says Hagen. But if you’re in a situation where replanting is a consideration, remember these steps:

1. Evaluate the stand in several areas throughout the field.
2. Consider the soil type. Soil type is key to understanding if there’s a chance for crusting and compaction, says Hagen.
3. Check the herbicide history.
4. Consider the time of year. If it gets too late, you may need to switch maturities to an earlier product. But until it gets later, you may not want to change the maturity.
5. Factor in early frost dates. BY KACEY BIRCHMIER.

U.S, CHINA ACCELERATE BEEF TALKS, DEAL POSSIBLE BY EARLY JUNE.

CHICAGO, May 19 (Reuters) - Talks on restarting U.S. beef exports to China are moving fast and final details should be in place by early June, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Friday, allowing American farmers to vie for business that has been lost by rival Brazil.

As part of a trade deal, U.S. ranchers are set to halt the use of growth-promoting drugs to raise cattle destined for export to China and to log the animals' movements, according to the USDA.

The two sides are negotiating to meet a deadline, set under a broader trade deal last week, for shipments to begin by mid-July.

Finalizing technical details in early June should mean beef companies, such as Tyson Foods Inc and Cargill Inc , can sign contracts with Chinese buyers to meet the deadline, the USDA said.

China banned U.S. beef in 2003 after a U.S. scare over mad cow disease. Previous attempts by Washington to reopen the world's fastest-growing beef market have fizzled out. But now, the quick progress of the latest talks is raising hopes of U.S. farmers.

"Both sides feel the urgency to get it done by the deadline," said Joe Schuele, spokesman for the U.S. Meat Export Federation, which represents Tyson, Cargill and other meat companies.
China's embassy in Washington could not immediately be reached for comment.

BRAZIL WOES

The timing of the new deal allows U.S. producers to benefit as Brazil, the world's top beef exporter, is struggling with scandals and rival shipper Australia is suffering from a drought that is hurting production, analysts said.

China accounted for nearly one-third of the Brazilian meat packing industry's $13.9 billion in exports last year.

But in March, Beijing briefly banned Brazilian imports after Brazilian police accused inspectors of taking bribes to allow sales of rotten and salmonella-tainted meat.

JBS SA, the world's largest meatpacker, was involved in the probe and in separate allegations this week that Brazil's president conspired to obstruct justice with the company's chairman.

The food-safety probe hit Brazil's beef exports, which fell by 24.6 percent to $378 million in April from March, according to Abiec, an industry group that represents meat processors accounting for about 90 percent of Brazil's exports.

"This is a very opportune time for the U.S. to step up," said Derrell Peel, an agricultural economist at Oklahoma State University.

Chinese appetite for beef has climbed due to its expanding middle class. In 2003, its imports totaled just $15 million, or 12,000 tons, including $10 million from the United States, according to the USDA.

TRACKING CATTLE

Brazilian exporters hope China's trade deal with Washington will not inflict more pain on meat companies in the country because U.S. exporters will be targeting different, higher-end customers, said Abrafrigo, an association representing Brazil's small meatpackers.

To reopen U.S. trade, Beijing has accepted a U.S. proposal in principle that would require producers to document the locations where cattle raised for beef exported to China are born and slaughtered, the USDA said. The system would be less onerous than tracking cattle throughout their entire lives, during which they can be kept at up to four different locations.

Peel, a livestock expert, estimated that U.S. producers trace the movements of less than 20 percent of the nation's cattle.

Under another rule, U.S. beef exported to China must be raised without a class of growth-enhancing drugs known as beta-agonists that includes Elanco's Optaflexx, according to the USDA. Elanco, owned by Eli Lilly and CO, declined to comment.

A trade group for veterinary drug companies, the Animal Health Institute, said China should accept beef from cattle raised with beta-agonists because they are safe.

U.S. beef shipments to China also will have to come from cattle under the age of 30 months, according to the USDA. Most U.S. cattle will meet that requirement, the U.S. Meat Export Federation said.

The terms of the deal are a win for the United States over Canada, which is approved to ship only frozen beef to China.

China already bans meat from Canadian cattle fed with Optaflexx, according to the Canadian Meat Council. It also requires that Canadian beef be produced from cattle that are less than 30 months old and can be tracked to the farm where they were born. BY TOM POLANSEK.

WEEKLY OUTLOOK: SUMMER PRICING FOR CORN AND SOYABEAN

Recent corn and soybean price declines associated with the political situation in Brazil erased the slight gains since the release of the March 31 Prospective Planting report. The sudden drop gives an indication of the fragility of the current soybean market, in particular. The information in the USDA's May 10 WASDE report is already incorporated into prices and the possibility of weather-related price runs in the summer are in focus. The following factors bear watching for possible pricingopportunities during the summer months for soybeans and corn.

In the soybean market, an indication of increasing consumption but larger ending stocks associated with increased production create an expectation of declining prices for the summer months barring a severe weather event. One factor of note is the large South American soybean crop and the potential impact on U.S. soybean exports. Currently, soybean exports are ahead of the pace needed to meet the projection of 2.05 billion bushels for the 2016-17 marketing year. Brazilian production is up approximately 12% in 2017 over last year's crop at 8.48 billion bushels and projected production for the 2018 crop is at 8.41 billion bushels. To date, Brazilian exports have been sluggish but the rapid drop in the Brazilian Real last week brought increased sales by Brazilian farmers. Weekly exports of U.S. soybeans may weaken under the increased competition. The large Brazilian crop looks to place downward pressure on exports in the summer months.

U.S. soybean planted acreage and yield will be key factors in soybean prices this summer. The release of the June 30 acreage report could be particularly bearish for soybean prices. The U.S. average soybean yield is projected at 48 bushels per acres with 89.5 million planted acres reported in USDA's Prospective Planting report. The cold and wet planting season in the Corn Belt with numerous reports of replanting of corn could lead to an increase in planted acres in soybeans for the 2017 crop year. Soybean plantings in the May 15 report sat at 32% which is on pace with the five-year average. If there is a lack of prevented planted acreage, the prospect of soybean acreage exceeding intentions looks more likely.

Corn prices this summer will be impacted by export progress and production issues. Current corn export levels are running above the pace to meet the projected 2.225 billion bushels for the 2016-17 marketing year. South American corn production recovered in 2017 from the drought-plagued 2016 crop year with Brazilian corn production projected at 3.78 billion bushels and Argentinian production projected at 1.57 billion bushels. The corn crop in South America will be entering the market this summer and will provide stiff competition for U.S. exports.

U.S. corn yield and production will be key to possible corn price runs in the summer. The U.S average corn yield is projected at 170.7 bushels per acre, and prospective planted acreage is at 90 million acres. While it is too early to deduce the impact of the poor planting season on corn yields and acreage choices, there exists the potential for lower yields in corn than in the last three years. The Crop Progress report on May 15 showed corn planting catching up to normal planting levels after a slow start. The first crop condition report by the USDA bears watching. Corn acreage may also be less than indicated in the Prospective Plantings report.

Risks associated with waiting for a summer price rally before pricing the 2017 crop is larger for soybeans. It may be prudent to price soybeans if a rally occurs in June before the release of the June acreage report. There is likely less risk of lower corn prices for several reasons. Soybean acreage is more likely to surpass planting intentions, creating a scenario in which production could be large even with a modest yield loss. Soybean yields may also be less vulnerable to problematic summer weather than corn. Soybean prices appear more vulnerable to downward price movements given large current supplies and the expectation of a large crop in 2017. Fundamental supply and demand factors are supportive to corn prices for the 2017-18 marketing year with the expectation of smaller production and reduced ending stocks.

If a summer rally in prices occurs, producers should consider aggressively pricing the 2017 soybean crop. A weather market may produce larger price increases for corn. The price decline that occurred last week on one piece of political news out of Brazil provides an indication of just how precarious soybean prices are currently. The weather experienced thus far in the crop year may foretell the potential for weather rallies through the summer months, but the fundamentals underlying both crops indicates a greater risk in soybean prices. BY TODD HUBBS.

WET NOW, LESS CERTAINTY FOR WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR 2017 GROWING SEASON.

So what’s up for weather for the rest of the growing season for 2017? Here’s an update from Alan Czarnetzki, a University of Northern Iowa meteorologist. Czarnetzki spoke at last week’s Iowa State University Soil Management and Land Valuation Conference.

We’re in-between an El Niño and La Niña 

El Niño is the warming of ocean water in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In La Niña, cool water extends from eastern tropical Pacific Ocean further west in the Pacific Ocean. Iowa had an El Niño event the summer of 2015.

“It wasn’t really that strong, but during the June through August period that year, temperatures averaged 1.3 degrees below normal,” says Czarnetzki. “It was the 29th coolest year among 144 years of records. Precipitation was 3.91 inches above normal. It was the seventh wettest among 144 years of records.”

Last summer was a neutral situation, with neither an El Niño or La Niña occurring. “In Iowa, temperatures from June to August were 1.2 degrees above normal. It was the 50th warmest among the 144 years of records. Precipitation was 1.92 inches above normal, was the 20th wettest among 144 years of records,” according to Czarnetzki.

It’s the same story for 2017. “We are not in an El Niño or La Niña, as we are presently in neutral conditions,” he says. Unfortunately, neutral conditions are not helpful to the forecasting process. “There can be a wide range,” he says.

Soil moisture is abundant in the Midwest

That’s particularly true in areas like southern Missouri. Some areas, such as much of northern South Dakota and southern North Dakota, are abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. But they’re the exception.

“Moisture conditions should be more than adequate," he said. The latest National Weather Service (NWS) map shows odds are higher for above-normal precipitation from June through August, particularly in western South Dakota and western Nebraska.

Summer Temperatures

The three-month forecast from the NWS is a bit murkier for June through August temperatures. At this point, there’s an equal chance for above-normal, below-normal or near-normal temperatures in the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and northern Missouri. BY GIL GULLICKSON.

WET CONDITIONS UNDERPIN CORN, SOYABEAN PRICES MONDAY.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- On Monday, the CME Group’s farm futures remain stronger.
At mid-session, the July corn futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.76, while December futures are 4¢ higher at $3.94.


July soybean futures are 6 1/4¢ higher at $9.59, November soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $9.58.

July wheat futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $4.41.

July soy meal futures are $1.70 per short ton higher at $308.70. July soy oil futures are $0.10 higher at 33.14¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.43 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 97 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says the weather-driven market is still focused on wet conditions and replanting of corn.

“Wet is the four letter word. More rain over the weekend and forecasts for more this week have kept speculators doing some buying or at least not selling more,” Scoville says.
For this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress Report, the trade Ideas are that corn planted progress can be as much as 85%.

“But, talk of big replanting to be done and talk of yellow crops keep ideas about condition highly variable,” Scoville says.

He adds, Soybean investors are seeing slow planting and no business at all from South America.  Wheat is up on wet weather creating planting delays for spring and condition worries for winter.  So wet is pushing prices higher today in a moderate volume day,” Scoville says. BY MIKE MCGINNIS.