THE IMPACT OF WET CONDITIONS ON CORN

In 1964 Beck’s planted their first ever Practical Farm Research (PFR)® Plot. Today, Beck’s PFR evaluates over 126 studies, comparing over 150 products across multiple locations throughout the Midwest to learn how different management practices and new technologies perform.
All of this is done with one goal in mind, to provide farmers with the data and information they need to add profitability to their operation.


With so many products, practices and variabilities from season to season, there are also a lot of questions on farmer’s minds. Beck’s set out to find a way to answer these questions in a new series titled #AskPFR.


Recently, many farmers have been concerned with the survivability of their corn seed given the rain events that have been flooding fields throughout the Midwest.

Join Beck's PFR team in the first episode of #AskPFR as they look to answer some of the most common questions we've been asked this year such as "How long can corn seed survive under water?" "How do I make the decision to replant?"is the largest source of unbiased, cutting-edge agronomic information in the industry. More than 110 different studies were conducted in 2016, comparing over 150 products across multiple locations to learn how different management practices and new technologies perform in field environments. In evaluating agronomic practices and input products, not comparing seed products, Beck’s PFR aims to help farmers maximize their input dollars and increase their bottom line. BY BECKS HYBRIDS.

2017 CATTLE OUTLOOK: PRICES HAVENT HIT THE BOTTOM.

The good news for cattle markets: The extreme volatility of the last couple years – the near-100% swings in prices – are behind us and probably aren’t coming back.

More good news: All industry segments are making a little money right now.
Then there’s the bad news: A wall of meat is coming soon – beef, pork, and poultry. It probably means that cattle prices haven’t hit bottom for this cycle.

That’s the summary of the CattleFax annual outlook report delivered at the 2017 Cattle Industry Convention. Here’s the group’s breakdown by industry segment.

Fed cattle

When finished cattle hit $170 per cwt a couple years ago, no one expected it to last. They were right. It bottomed out at about $98 in fall 2016. It’s rebounded since, and that is allowing some profits for feedlots that did a good job of buying calves.

This year, CattleFax’s Kevin Good expects fed prices to average $110, in a range of $98 to $124. It could be a couple more years before the full market bottoms are hit in this stage of the cattle-rebuilding cycle. For now, feeders can buy calves and hedge in profits for a few months, he says.

Feeder cattle

The price for 550-pound weaned calves is expected to average $150 per cwt this year, in a range of $135 to $165. “We believe the average break-even price for cow-calf producers is about $140,” says CattleFax CEO Randy Blach. “For the best producers, that breakeven is probably around $100. So, that segment of the industry stays profitable at least for this year.”

Longer term is more questionable. USDA numbers say we have added 2.5 million cows to the beef-breeding herd in the last three years, about half of that in the Southern Plains, and 230,000 head in Missouri. Credit that to restocking after the drought. We could add another 400,000 cows this year, says Blach. Those calves will hit sale barns in 2018 and 2019.

Cull cows

This segment hit the skids last year and is expected to average only $65 per cwt this year – or lower.

Bred cows

Replacement heifers are a different story. “Normally, we say a bred heifer should be worth about 1.5 to 1.65 times the value of a calf,” says Good.

If the calf is valued at $800, it means a bred heifer is worth around $1,300. While many bred heifer sales are at higher prices than that right now, he thinks they may be overpriced for long-term profit potential.

total meat supply

All three of the major meats are in expansion mode, and that’s scary, says Blach. In the last two years, U.S. farmers produced 5.5 billion pounds more beef, pork, and poultry, 25% of which was exported. The record supplies have cost farmers leverage in the retail market. Two years ago, about 24% of the retail price of beef went to farmers; it’s under 20% now.

In 2017, total meat supplies will be up another 3.2%, pretty evenly split between the three meats. Another sliver of good news: Beef carcass weights appear to have stabilized at 825 pounds, which is 50 pounds more than six years ago.

Trade

It’s the biggest unknown factor for cattle profits,says Blach.
“Keep your eye on it. How the trade deals are reworked by the Trump administration will be VERY important,” he says. BY GENE JOHNSTON.

USDA WLL HELP FARMERS WILL ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE , SAYS PERDUE.

While Democratic lawmakers and farm activists criticized President Trump for his decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue shrugged off climate change as inevitable and said USDA was “committed to digging ever deeper into research to develop better methods of agricultural production in that changing climate.”

“Floods, droughts, and natural disasters are a fact of life for farmers, ranchers, and foresters,” said Perdue in a statement. “They have persevered in the past, and they will adapt in the future – with the assistance of the scientists and experts at USDA.”

Cargill, one of the world’s largest grain processors and foodmakers, said “We have no intention of backing away from our efforts to address climate change in the food and agriculture supply chains around the world, and, in fact, this will inspire us to work harder.” Unlike Trump, who said the Paris Accord would hurt the U.S. economy, Cargill chief executive David MacLennan said, “It would have resulted in U.S. economic growth and job creation.”

“By refusing to limit U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and lead the world in this space, President Trump is allowing increasingly unpredictable and destructive weather to wreak havoc on family farm operations, future generations, and food prices and availability for years to come,” said the National Farmers Union, the second-largest U.S. farm group. The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, a small-farm advocate, joined NFU in saying climate change mitigation could provide income to farmers through payments for carbon sequestration on their land.

“The next farm bill presents an important opportunity to invest in the programs and policies needed to build resilient farms and ranches, and NSAC will work closely with our partners to ensure those investments are made,” said the coalition.

New York state Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, said Trump was “irresponsibly shortsighted” in the decision. “We have irrefutable data that temperatures are rising, Arctic ice is melting, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather is becoming more severe,” she said. Maine Representative Chellie Pingree, a member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee that oversees USDA spending, said, “In Maine, we already see the harmful effects of climate change. Rapidly rising temperatures are causing higher rates of asthma and tick-borne illness, warming oceans are threatening our economy by causing fish and lobsters to migrate, and rising sea levels are jeopardizing coastal communities.”

“Montanans are in a war against climate change. We have experienced increasingly massive wildfires, and our productive agricultural lands have run short on water,” said Steve Charter of the conservation group Northern Plains Resource Council that’s based in Billings, Montana.

DTN said a group of business leaders in 2015 started issuing regional “Risky Business” reports on the risks of climate change. “Among the findings were that farmers in the Midwest were among the industries best equipped to handle the risks, though crop production will continue to shift northward over time,” said DTN. “The same report noted the southeast parts of the U.S. will be most dramatically affected by higher temperatures, which would actually lower agricultural productivity in the region.” BY CHUCK ABBOTT.

PERDUE: WE WONT LET YOU GO HUNGRY BUT THEY ARE LIMITS

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue, who runs the federal farm subsidy and public nutrition programs, told a Montana audience that “my goal is to have a safety net for all American citizens, producers, but also those who cannot afford (food) … It is not in the heart of America to want to see anyone go hungry.”

Speaking at the Montana Ag Summit in Great Falls, Perdue said spending cuts are necessary to get the federal debt under control. For the coming fiscal year, President Trump has proposed a $193 billion cut – 25% – in food stamp spending over 10 years, a 36% cut in crop insurance, elimination of the major U.S. food aid program, a scaling back of land stewardship programs, and the elimination of many rural development programs.

Neither farm subsidies nor food stamps are intended as a permanent support, said Perdue. “Just as we don’t want everybody on a permanent status on food stamps, we don’t want to become dependent,” said Perdue to the farm conference.

“It is not in the heart of America to want to see anyone go hungry. And we don’t want to see that happen,” Perdue said a few minutes into a 16-minute speech. “Americans are compassionate, and the USDA will be compassionate as we administer that program (food stamps). You know, on the other hand, I don’t think it ought to be a permanent lifestyle, either. It ought to be a hand up and a help out to do that,” said Perdue to applause from his listeners.

Perdue’s remarks about Americans not wanting their neighbors to go hungry were a contrast to Representative Adrian Smith, who represents a largely rural district in Nebraska. During an NPR interview, the Republican replied nutrition “is very important” when asked, “Is every American entitled to eat?” Along with food stamps, “there are a number of ways that we could address that,” said Smith. He did not respond directly to a question if he would vote for a budget that cut food stamps. “I look for there to be a lot of changes made in the House and Senate to the president’s budget,” said the sixth-term lawmaker.

Trump’s proposed budget for the fiscal year opening on October 1 would cut food stamps “through a massive cost shift to states, cutting eligibility for millions of households, and reducing benefits for hundreds of thousands more,” said the think tank Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “The unemployed, the elderly, and low-income working families with children would bear the brunt of the cuts.”

The proposed budget would tighten the time limit on food stamps for able-bodied adults without dependents and would deny food stamps to many households, now eligible due to a welfare-reform provision, who have larger assets than usually allowed but also high housing and child care expenses. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities said 1 million people would be affected by the stricter time limit, and an estimated 1 million households would be affected by the change in so-called categorical eligibility. The Trump budget would require states to pay 25% of benefits but also allow them to reduce the benefit per person.
Some 42.3 million people received food stamps at latest count.

The Trump budget also would limit the availability of federal subsidies to lower the cost of crop insurance. The government pays an average 62¢ of each $1 in premium at present. There would be no premium subsidies for revenue policies that include the harvest price option, popular among farmers. This option pays indemnities at the harvesttime price for a crop if it is higher than the guarantee offered when policies were purchased in the spring. Critics say the option can result in windfall payments.

“Insurance is insurance. Crop insurance is a safety net,” said Perdue, to offset flood, hail, disease, or catastrophically low prices, rather than a routine source of revenue.

In saying that federal spending must be cut, Perdue, born to a Georgia farm family, said farmers are skilled in adjusting to the boom-and-bust cycle of agriculture. “I would trust the U.S. farming community better than anyone else to absorb what our needs are budgetarially … We’re going to make sure it’s a budget we can live with but also one that contributes to the vitality, economic prosperity of not only our generation but also generations to come.”

During a panel discussion with Senate Agriculture chairman Pat Roberts and Montana Senator Steve Daines, Perdue listed a handful of trade issues with China, including delays in approval of new strains of GE crops. Eight requests are pending. Without Chinese approval, crops grown from those seeds cannot be sold to China.

“The president is very, very serious about evening up the balance of trade,” said Perdue. “We think China needs to buy more.” China is the No. 1 market for U.S. farm exports, forecast to buy $22.3 billion of U.S. products this fiscal year while shipping $4.3 million of its ag exports to U.S. buyers. Overall, China runs a large trade surplus with the U.S. BY CHUCK ABBOTT.

WHEAT FUTURE LITTLE CHANGED OVERNIGHT, ETHANOL PRODUCTION BACK UP AS USGC TOUTS BIOFUEL.

1. Wheat Little Changed as Investors Weigh Favorable U.S., Wet Canada Weather
Wheat was little changed in overnight trading, along with corn and beans, as investors weigh dry weather in the U.S. that will aid harvest of winter varieties in the U.S. against wet weather in Canada that’s slowing planting of spring crops.

Dry weather is expected to continue in much of the Southern Plains and eastern Midwest as growers begin to harvest in parts of Texas and Oklahoma, where 100% of winter wheat is headed. That’s weighing on prices as traders know a lot of wheat is about to hit the market.

In Canada, however, spring wheat planting may be delayed due to inclement weather, according to Commodity Weather Group.

Wheat futures for July delivery fell ½¢ to $4.28½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Kansas City wheat added ¼¢ to $4.31 a bushel in Chicago.

Corn futures for July delivery was unchanged at $3.70½ a bushel overnight.
Soybeans rose ¾¢ to $9.13 a bushel in Chicago. Soy meal gained 80¢ to $298.30 a short ton, and soy oil lost 0.19¢ to 31.09¢ a pound.
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2. Ethanol Production, Stockpiles Rise Slightly Last Week; Grains Council Touts U.S. Biofuel

Ethanol production in the U.S. bumped back up, albeit only slightly, and inventories of the biofuel rose in the week that ended on May 26, according to the Energy Information Administration.
Output has been pretty steady the past few weeks, hovering just above 1 million barrels a day, on average, for the past four weeks. Production last week totaled 1.02 million barrels, nearing the highest level since March set two weeks ago and up from 1.01 million the prior week, the EIA said in a report.

Inventories, meanwhile, rose to 22.763 million barrels, up from 22.684 million a week earlier, according to the government.

As with production, stockpiles of the biofuel have been basically unchanged for the past several weeks, not fluctuating much since the start of the year.

The U.S. Grains Council (USGC) earlier this week noted that it’s put on two events to provide information about ethanol to other countries. The USGC  put on a workshop in South Korea to outline the global ethanol market and to tout the benefits of the biofuel including improved air quality and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

South Korea has imported 49.1 million gallons of ethanol so far this year.

The USGC also put on an event in Vietnam, which is set to implement an E5 blending rate for the country’s most widely used fuel grade, the agency said. It will move to E10 by 2020.
While Vietnam expects to source much of its ethanol from local sources, the Grains Council encouraged those in attendance at the event to take a look at U.S. ethanol.

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3. Scattered Thunderstorms Expected to Roll Across Midwest, Though Rain Will Be Isolated

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to make their way across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa today, but it’s unlikely any will be severe, according to the National Weather Service.

Thunderstorms are also possible Saturday as a cold front moves into the area, the NWS said.
In parts of central and eastern Iowa, there’s a slight chance of isolated or scattered thunderstorms in much of the region, though the odds of rainfall are slim in most areas, according to the agency.
Moving east, it’s much of the same with “limited” thunderstorm risk for the weekend, the weather service said.

The biggest issue right now is continued flooding along the Mississippi River and its tributaries stretching from northern Missouri all the way into Louisiana. The river is receding in many areas, but it still remains above its banks in some lower-lying areas. BY TONY DREIBUS.