Thursday, 16 March 2017

BUMPER HARVEST: WHEAT PRICE CRASHES IN KANO

As farmers begin wheat harvest in Kano, investigations have revealed that its price in most of the grains markets in the ancient city has crashed.
A visit to Dawanau grains market, one of the largest produce markets in West Africa, revealed that it was flooded with new wheat, a situation that crashed the price of the commodity from N34,000 per 100kg bag to N15,000.
A business man in the market, Alhaji Danliti, said the recent crash was one of the lowest recorded in recent years.
He added that along with the price crash, patronage has dropped as against the normal trend.
“There are a lot of changes witnessed this year. From all indications, there is a bumper harvest of wheat this year, but the farmers are suffering because the price wasn’t favourable to them and the commodity seems to flood the market,” he said.
Malam Mahe Waziri, a wheat farmer at Bagwai irrigation site in Kano, said the farmers thought the bumper harvest would put smiles on their faces but regretted that the market price wasn’t favourable.
However, Abdu Iro, a wheat merchant, said the crash in wheat price is temporary as the commodity will regain its value in the market soon.

3 BIG THINGS TODAY, MARCH 16

SOYBEANS, CORN LOWER OVERNIGHT; USDA EXPECTED TO RAISE GLOBAL STOCKPILES FORECASTS.

1. SOYBEANS, GRAINS LOWER IN OVERNIGHT TRADING AHEAD OF WASDE REPORT

Soybeans and grains were lower in overnight trading ahead of a major crop report due out at noon in Washington, D.C.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to raise its expectations for global carryout in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report today. It’s also expected to increase its projection for Brazilian corn production, according to surveys.
Researcher INTL FCStone earlier this week raised its estimate for Brazilian corn production to 109.1 million metric tons, up almost 5 million tons from a prior outlook, according to Reuters.  
Soybean futures for May delivery fell 5½¢ to $10.16¼ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal lost $1.30 to $329.80 a short ton, and soy oil declined 0.30¢ to 33.24¢ a pound.  
Corn futures for May delivery lost 1¼¢ to $3.71 a bushel in Chicago.
Wheat futures for May delivery fell 1½¢ to $4.45½ a bushel overnight. Kansas City futures declined 2¢ to $4.64 a bushel.
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2. USDA EXPECTED TO RAISE OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL CORN, SOYBEAN STOCKPILES

The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to raise its outlook for both global corn and soybean stockpiles.
World carryout of corn is likely to be pegged by the USDA at about 219 million metric tons, up from 217.6 million a month ago, according to analysts. The agency’s U.S. inventories estimate is likely to be unchanged at 2.32 billion bushels.
Brazilian production will likely be estimated at about 88 million tons, up from 86.5 million last month, while output in Argentina will probably be unchanged.
Soybean stockpiles globally will be projected at just north of 81 million metric tons, up from 80.4 million last month, analysts said. The USDA’s domestic inventories outlook is expected to decline to 414 million bushels from 420 million in February.
The agency’s estimate for production in Brazil will probably be raised to 106 million metric tons from 104 million a month ago. Output in Argentina is estimated to be little changed from February at about 55.5 million tons, according to industry projections.
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3. DRY WEATHER REMAINS IN PARTS OF MIDWEST; NORTH EXPECTED TO SEE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS

The red-flag warnings for much of the Midwest and Southern Plains are gone this morning after several fires broke out yesterday.
There’s still a small patch of land, encompassing about 18 counties along the borders of Colorado, Nebraska, and Kansas, that are in a fire warning, according to the National Weather Service.
In North Dakota and Minnesota, along the Canadian border, temperatures and wind chills are expected to reach dangerous levels tonight. Wind chills are pegged as low as -40˚F. overnight, the NWS said in a report early Thursday.
“Dangerous wind chill values will persist into Friday morning with an improvement in conditions as the day progresses,” the agency said. “Wind chill values will dip into the -15˚F. to -30˚F. range again Friday night into Saturday morning.”

DROUGHT-TOLERANT WHEAT ON THE WAY

CANADIAN NON-GMO DROUGHT-RESISTANT WHEAT MAY ENTER REGISTRATION TRIALS IN 2017.

Look for a grinning, midsize lab-coat guy this winter, wearing dark glasses possibly, at the CFIA Variety Registration Office in Ottawa or Toronto. Julian Northey plans to be there, toting his paperwork, to register a new durum wheat for trials in western Canada.
If it happens and if it holds up to scrutiny, the new durum wheat will be a breakthrough in drought-tolerant technology.
Northey earned a doctorate in plant molecular genetics in 2009 from the University of Toronto. A year later, he launched Frontier Agri-Science (FAS), an agricultural biotechnology company specializing in non-GMO genetic technology.
FAS now has a team of seven scientists with serious credentials and a website listing partnerships with four Canadian universities as well as BASF, Biogemma, and ICRISAT, the international crops research institute for the semiarid tropics (frontieragri.science).  
The new durum is a product of the platform that specializes in water-use efficiency and stress tolerance. Other platforms are directed toward herbicide tolerance and biofuel production. The September 28 FAS durum harvest, with six lines of foundation seed, was long awaited.
“We’ve been working on this for four years, and we feel it has great promise in drought resistance. The science itself has been 10 years in development,” Northey says.
For Ontario wheat producers, he says, “We will be starting to select this (trait) in bread wheat very shortly.”

HOW IT OCCURRED

Without going into the detailed biochemistry, Northey says the original discovery leading to his drought-resistance work occurred in the lab where he worked on his doctorate.
It involved the chemical modification of a protein, in a process that hyper-sensitized the simple plant Arabidopsis (the fruit fly of plant genetics research used exclusively in a lab setting), to a stress hormone so that it became drought-resistant.
“In the organism that we studied, it can theoretically happen to approximately 700 different proteins,” Northey says. “The job of my doctorate was to find out which one of the 700 was important in modulating the stress response.”
As he searched, the molecular geneticist developed a chemical-based genetic selection platform. It is a chemical-based screening process that results in non-GM plants. Theoretically, it can be applied to any crop to search for stress tolerance.
“We’re screening on a chemical, looking for resistance to a particular chemistry. When those plants are resistant, they turn out to be drought-resistant. In fact, that turns out to be about one in a million. It’s a very arduous, very challenging screening,” he says.
Chemical technology underlying this drought-screening platform is a trade secret.  
After his success with Arabidopsis, Northey gradually upgraded the technology for genetic screening into crops with more and more complex genomes. In the plant kingdom, FAS went from a diploid dicot (Arabidopsis) to a tetraploid monocot (durum).   
“We felt the genetics were a little simpler in durum than in bread wheat. Now we’ll soon be using the platform to select novel traits in bread wheat,” he says. “An amazing thing is that we can essentially take any variety globally – Egyptian, Australian, Russian – and apply this platform to theoretically improve it for water efficiency purposes.”
The publication of his recent research using Arabidopsis genetics and the genetic pathway was published last July 25 in the journal, Nature Plants.  
“It is a breakthrough; that’s why it’s in Nature Plants,” he says. “We have flipped, on its head, decades of common thinking about what leads to drought resistance with this particular plant hormone. It’s the exact opposite of what everyone was thinking, and essentially it was my doctorate.”
In previous fieldwork using the original discovery in GM canola or corn under moderate to severe drought conditions, yield has been improved up to 60% more than plants that didn’t contain the GM technology.
“In canola, the yield increases are around 15% to 20%,” he says. “That gave me the scientific confidence to start the company and work seriously at integrating this technology into various crops.
“We hope to have significant yield increases under water-limited conditions in non-GM wheat,” he adds.
Referring to the new durum wheat, he says, “I think it’s realistic to look for a 15% to 20% yield increase over current commercial varieties.”
When the new lines go into registration trials, an industry will be watching.

HYBRID WHEAT BY DECADE’S END

Wouldn’t it be great if wheat farmers could glean hybrid vigor akin to what cattle producers get in a black baldie calf resulting from crossing a Hereford bull with an Angus cow? These days, maybe they can.
Syngenta plans to launch hybrid wheat in the U.S. by 2020. Bayer Crop-Science has also been working on hybrid wheat with a similar time line.
Hybrid wheat has long been a gleam in the eyes of farmers and wheat breeders. Physiologically, though, it’s often been difficult for pollen from this self-pollinating crop to travel long distances. Other hurdles have included lack of seed production on the female side, susceptibility to fungal diseases, and added seed costs.
However, Darcy Pawlik, Syngenta’s product lead for cereals, notes tools that will help make hybrid wheat a reality including:
  • Native trait stacks
  • Doubled haploid breeding
  • Marker-assisted recurrent selection
  • Long-term genetic base improvement
  • Boost from Barley
Syngenta is using the same platform to develop hybrid wheat as it did for hybrid barley that is now commercialized in the United Kingdom.
“Hybridization will revolutionize the way wheat is grown,” predicts Patricia Malarkey, who heads research and development for Syngenta.
So far, yields in North Dakota have been 10% to 15% higher than conventional varieties, say Syngenta officials. “With hybrid wheat, you can take the best of both parents and get an additive effect,” says Pawlik.

BOOST FROM BARLEY

Syngenta is using the same platform to develop hybrid wheat as it did for hybrid barley that is now commercialized in the United Kingdom.
“Hybridization will revolutionize the way wheat is grown,” predicts Patricia Malarkey, who heads research and development for Syngenta.
So far, yields in North Dakota have been 10% to 15% higher than conventional varieties, say Syngenta officials. “With hybrid wheat, you can take the best of both parents and get an additive effect,” says Pawlik.

Countdown to FNS 2017

Without any doubt, agriculture is this nation’s saviour in the face of the current economic realities. However, achieving this feat cannot occur without stemming the nation’s overdependence  on importation of farm produce. Hence, revitalising agricultural productivity is of the essence.
As a key step towards facilitating the engagement of the private sector, as well as all critical stakeholders in the agric sector, AgroNigeria in collaboration with its sponsoring partners is organising the first ever Feed Nigeria Summit (FNS) 2017, to discuss strategies to drive progress in the Nigerian agriculture sector.
The summit under the theme “Feed Nigeria to Feed Africa”, is a first of its kind in Nigeria, and will bring together prominent stakeholders, NGOs, government officials and ministries, campaigners, continental and international players and other influencers in the agricultural space, to discuss bugging issues aimed at advancing development of the agriculture sector in Nigeria.
Venue: Grande ball room, Intercontinental Hotel, Victoria Island, Lagos State
Date: Thursday 6th – Friday 7th April, 2017
Time: 8am Prompt
For more enquiries, contact: 08099207555, 08033321575,
This event is strictly by invitation.

Nigeria will reclaim her lost glory through agriculture- Lokpobiri

Nigeria’s Minister of state for agriculture, Heineken Lokpobiri has guaranteed that agriculture will be the nation’s economic hero.
The Minister who made this assertion during a facility tour to the Atlantic Shrimps Farm in Badagry, Lagos stated that Nigeria can reclaim her lost glory from Agriculture, far more than it was over the years.
Commending the efforts of the owners of the farms, he noted that substantial investment in the sector has not only started increasing foreign earnings, but has provided jobs for over 1000 Nigerian youths.
The minister expressed that with this renewed interest to diversify the economy through agriculture Nigerians and interested expatriates should for more investments in the sector which he described as the surest alternative avenue for wealth creation, employment generation, food security and wellness.
He also stated that government would entrench all efforts to support and promote investment in Nigeria.

Wednesday, 15 March 2017

3 BIG THINGS TODAY, MARCH 15

CORN, BEANS LOWER IN OVERNIGHT TRADING; EXPORT SALES UP WEEK-TO-WEEK, MISS AVERAGES.

1. CORN, SOYBEANS LOWER AFTER USDA STOCKPILE PROJECTIONS TOP FORECASTS

Corn and soybeans were lower in overnight trading after the U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its outlook for global carryout of both crops beyond expectations.
World corn inventories at the end of the marketing year will total 220.7 million metric tons, topping forecasts for about 219 million tons, the USDA said in a Thursday report. Brazilian production is pegged at 91.5 million tons, well above industry estimates for just under 88 million tons
Soybean stockpiles globally will total 82.2 million metric tons, up from forecasts for about 81 million tons, the government said. The USDA pegged production at 108 million tons, beating expectations for 106 million.
Corn futures for May delivery fell 1½¢ to $3.65½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade.
Soybean futures declined 5¾¢ to $10.05¼ a bushel in Chicago. Soy meal lost $1.90 to $326.60 a short ton, and soy oil declined 0.18¢ to 32.93¢ a pound. 
Wheat futures for May delivery fell a penny to $4.43 a bushel overnight. Kansas City futures declined ½¢ to $4.62 a bushel.
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2. EXPORT SALES REPORTS MIXED AS SALES RISE WEEK-TO-WEEK, MISS AVERAGES

The Department of Agriculture’s export sales report was mixed as it showed sales rose week-to-week for corn, beans, and wheat, but were down from the average.
Corn exporters sold 741,100 metric tons of the grain in the week that ended on March 2, the USDA said in a report on Thursday. That’s up 7% from the previous week but down 7% from the prior four-week average, according to the government.
Japan was the big buyer, taking 318,800 tons. South Korea was next on the list at 175,800 tons, and Mexico bought 165,000 tons. Saudi Arabia purchased 113,100 tons and Colombia took 61,700 tons.
Soybean sales totaled 485,500 tons, up 14% from a week earlier but down 8% from the average, according to the USDA.
Mexico was the biggest buyer at 151,500 tons, topping China, which bought 84,300 tons. Japan was in for 77,800 tons, Taiwan bought 70,900 tons and Indonesia purchased 70,100 tons.
Wheat exporters sold 391,600 tons of the grain, up 21% week-to-week but down 14% from the prior four-week average, the agency said.
Japan bought 56,400 tons, Bangladesh took 55,000 tons, Yemen purchased 50,000 tons, Mexico was in for 41,000 tons and the Philippines purchased 36,700 tons, according to the USDA.
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3. FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF MISSOURI, PARTS OF SEVERAL STATES

After several days of red-flag warnings from warm, dry weather, a freeze warning is now in effect for parts of the lower Midwest.
Much of Missouri, southern parts of Illinois and Indiana, and most of Kentucky are under a freeze warning this morning, according to the National Weather Service.
Temperatures are expected to fall well below freezing for a few nights in a row. Any uncovered plants including soft-red winter wheat in the area may suffer damage from the cold, the agency said.
“A cold Canadian high-pressure (system) will surge southeast across the area, setting the stage for a hard freeze over portions of the region late tonight and Saturday morning,” the NWS said in a statement early Thursday. “Low temperatures in the 20s will be common over the next several nights heading into next week.”

GRAIN CHARTS ARE TURNING NEGATIVE, ANALYST SAYS

Beans ended the week on a weak note, as the trade continued to price in yesterday’s bearish report.
The Chinese market was under pressure on liquidation last night, and that spilled into the U.S. market as well. Macro headwinds added to the negative tones as the crude and metal markets were under liquidation pressure all session long. It seems that some of the inflationary money that had been coming at the commodity markets recently is now leaving.
With both the world as well as the U.S. balance sheets expected to get worse over the coming months, it will be hard for rallies to be sustained without a major weather issue. 
The charts are turning negative and that will only add to the bearish tone. We do not expect higher prices for soybeans in the short or medium term. We suggest this market is on the path to hit $8.84 for the early-summer low basis the November contract. We do see a good chance for a rally in the July/August time frame (one that does not hold). But our key focus is on the sharply lower pricing expected over the next three months.
If you have not yet, we continue to urge sales on all remaining old crop and work on new crop. We do not want to have to bet the farm, a literal issue this year, by hoping for a summer rally by turning down the chance to sell +$10.00 beans.
 

LEAN HOG COMMENTARY

Hog futures did well this week, with a 45¢ gain on the books for the dominant June contract. Considering the bird flu news, three cases this week, that was good. While some would suggest bird flu is bullish from consumers turning away from poultry, the opposite is more likely. U.S. consumers generally have little actual change in meat demand based on meat safety fears.
The actual impact to pork is negative. If there are export bans enacted, then that means more chicken left in the U.S. to compete against pork. The phrase, “...sell it or smell it” is apt here.
According to USDA’s weekly estimate that comes out at 1 p.m., this week’s kill will run 2.313 million head. That would be 3.4% over last year, right next to the 3.6% gain seen over the previous six weeks. As of two weeks ago, weights are even with last year. Total supply this week, slaughter x weights, will total 491.1 million pounds. That would be 3.3% over last year. The recent six weeks have run 3.5% over.
Smithfield Foods reported that several thousand hogs in a hog farm in Laverne, Oklahoma, were killed due to the wildfires. The breeding herd farm in question housed a total of 45,000 head. If all those sows were killed, you are looking at something like 1.1 million head of potential market hogs lost on an annual basis assuming about 25 pigs per litter per year. Assuming a 5,000-sow loss, you would be looking at 125,000 head for the whole year.
It may seem heartless to say but with these events, the headlines and news stories are usually more threatening to supply than the actual loss in head from a market impacting basis.
Perhaps the biggest issue here is this week's action may have tested the support from a Head and Shoulders top formation on the charts. The potential H&S top in the cattle mentioned three weeks ago was never activated by a close below a similar support level. Next week’s trade will be important to monitor.
USDA reported the monthly meat export numbers today, converted over from the Census Bureau data. This is separate from the normal weekly export numbers that only include carcass meat, and that may be a little incomplete. The monthly meat trade release is considered the solid data. Pork exports in January ran 457.958 million pounds. That was 20% over last year. This is even better than the 9% to 15% year-over-year gains posted in the previous three months. Pork imports also held good news. At 83.878 million, they ran 15% under last year. That was better than the 4% to 11% year-over-year declines from the previous three months. More exports and fewer imports – positive news.
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Rich Nelson
Allendale Inc.
815-578-6161
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Our biggest agenda is extension service -Cynthia Umoru

Cynthia Mosunmola Umoru, is the CEO of Honeysuckle PTL Ventures and she is a farmer , one of the most successful ones in Nigeria. As a young girl her passion was to study Medicine but was forced to attend another university due to political violence in the north. It was while studying zoology in the university that her interest in agriculture grew. Refusing to limit herself, she took courses in fisheries, and multi-level marketing.
In her final year in the university, armed with the zeal to chart a new course, be her own boss she launched Honeysuckles PTL Ventures with the main aim of selling processed food produce.  Honeysuckle focuses on high quality food products using modern packaging and fast delivery, and has its own farms and ponds.


Today we present to you a passionate Nigerian who sees herself as an agrovangelist. She is the technical adviser to the minister of Agriculture on Youth and Women

What prompted you to be a farmer?
My journey started straight out of college about 13 years ago. I decided to venture into agribusiness. I did a vertical integration in agricultural production. So we produce Chicken, Snails, Catfish. Now we are looking into vegetables and some cash crops.

Can you take us on a journey into the food business?
We have gone through some exciting time, a phenomenal learning curve where a green horn out of the university ventures into enterprise, tried getting clients, getting markets, raising finance, going bankrupt, starting all over again, acquiring land and so many other things but I must say it’s been a very exciting journey. Every experience is a significant learning curve for me. One that has transitioned into being a young lady who has found her calling in the agribusiness space, I have become extremely passionate about food, farming and the community at large. there’s a greater burden to actually impact the food space in Nigeria with focus on primary production, value addition and now we have discussing a lot about export and import substitution.
As the Technical adviser to the Honorable Minister of Agriculture on Youth and Women, can you tell us about the steps currently undertaken to engage the youths in Agribusiness?
From the government’s perspective, it is a continuous process. We are in a society where we want the magic wand to be raised and things just happen overnight. The Federal Government has put some policies in place to actually build the capacity of young men and women especially around areas of mechanisation, skills development for productivity in the agric sector. So you are going to go across varying value chains though the requirements vary.
One of the biggest agenda on the table is how we invest in extension service proviso, within the sector. there is the Npower project running from the office of the Vice President that will recruit and train, about 30, 000 extension service providers in the first phase, though the phase has been approved to scale to a 100,000 hopefully in the next 3 to 5 years.
There is a huge skills gap that is deficit in the agricultural sector, where young people who go to the university acquire certain skills that may not be relevant in the agric sector space so one of the things the government is looking into doing is how they create in partnership with the state government to create training programmes that will actually get the young people into the agribusiness space. Skills like mechanization, tractor operation, farm management, farm business, book-record keeping, and other of those skills will be given and some other programs will be across varying value chain to help young people actually begin to leverage the opportunities and potentials in the agricultural sector. So there are a lot of plans but they will be phased, they all can’t be rolled out in one sweep.

What is your advice to the youths?
Like I will say to anyone who wants to venture into any enterprise at all, life is in stages, and you must enjoy every phase on the way to where you are going. There is need for resilience. We are naturally tenacious people but I will recommend that we seek information, knowledge is power, knowledge is key. Gain requisite knowledge the enterprise you are going into, do not go into that journey blinding, there are mentors, there are people who towed that line before, it is important that you get all the support you need, to leverage people’s experience, read, you know, go online, go for short course, programs, improve on your skill set then your staying power in the business will be elongated.

AgroNigeria extends NAA 2016/17 competition deadline

In line with efforts to promote active participation of Nigerian youths in the ongoing Nigerian Agriculture Awards 2016/2017 Project and Essay Competition, AgroNigeria has extended the timeline to the March 23, 2017.
According to the organisers, the competition themed “Building a Crop of Young Agroprenuers”, which commenced on February 20, 2017 has been extended till the March 23rd 2017.
They added that the extension would allow more participants employ their ingenuity to effectively contribute to the development of the agricultural sector.
The competition is open to Corp members/students in tertiary institutions and secondary schools. Interested participants are advised to visit www.agronigeria.com.ng for more information.

SOKOTO CARROT FARMERS PUSH FOR SEEDS, PROCESSING PLANT

Sokoto is famed as a key producer of carrot, a popular root vegetable which experts have noted to be very rich in Vitamin A, dietary fibre, antioxidants, and minerals.
It is cultivated in Kware, Ilela, Goronyo, Wamakko, Gada and Dange Shuni local government areas of the state.
On a weekly basis, not less than 10 trailer loads of 400-450 sacks of carrot are said to leave Sokoto to other states across Nigeria.
However, carrot farmers in the state have stressed the need for a processing factory in the state for value addition and adequate utilisation of carrot for local consumption and export.
“We need a carrot processing factory so that we can sufficiently use carrot as ingredient for making soap, juice, pomade and medicine as it is being done in places like Ghana,” Secretary, Sokoto Carrot Farmers and Sellers Co-operative Union, Alhaji Malami Muhammad,  said.
He observed that carrot is more popular than many other vegetables in the state. “It is second only to cabbage in demand and supply,” he said.
The carrot farmers/sellers scribe   said: “Carrot farming is  a major employment creation sector with many youths involved in it. We have over 1,000 youths, who engage in various activities around carrot farming and trading  from which they earn their living.
According to him, the carrot farmers /sellers union has over 4,000 members in the state.
He added: “Medical experts have even assisted to decongest our carrot markets by advising people to consume it to enhance their sight, so we have more and more patronage.”
Muhammad, however, lamented that the seed they use, is not available in Nigeria but has to be imported from France.
“There is only one dealer from Zaria across Nigeria, who is importing the seed from France and has complete monopoly of the market thereby dictating the price,” he disclosed.
Muhammad said a 100g sachet of carrot seed which hitherto  cost just N600 now goes for N4,000 in the market.
“This is due to its scarcity and the Nigerian seed is substandard. The foreign seed is sweeter and consumed more,” he stated.
He called on the state government to provide loan to farmers or the co-operative to purchase enough seeds for sale to farmers at subsided rate.
On carrot cultivation,  the farmer who noted that it is a dry season vegetable, explained that it grows after the rainy season – during the harmattan.
 “It takes three months to grow to appreciable size and level and can be allowed to remain without harvesting for as long  as 10 months,” he said.
On challenges, Muhammad  said carrot at its early stage of growth faced the problem of locusts which ravage its plants.
“Farmers have to have pesticides before even planting the seed,” he added.
He also said when there is large supply, farmers lose a lot from glut.
The secretary called on carrot farmers to continue farming the produce despite the dearth of seedling because of its health and economic values.
Musa Garba who hawks carrot on a wheelbarrow, said the demand for the vegetable is high.
“In a day , I get N1,000 from a  N2,000 sack I buy. People consume  it a lot especially during the hot season. It is the season now, so I abandoned sugarcane hawking for carrot, that’s what many of us do. As far as we the hawkers are concerned, during this time, carrot overtakes sugarcane.”
He   said they need to constantly water the carrots to keep it fresh.
Garba, however, said during rainy season supply diminished