HUZZAHS FOR NEW USDA TRADE OFFICE, QUALMZ ABOUT STEWARDSHIP AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue unveiled a USDA reorganization that would take effect in mid-June, highlighted by creation of a high-level office to promote U.S. farm exports, with President Trump’s call for a smaller and more efficient government still on the docket. Small-farm advocates said rural economic development was downgraded by Perdue’s package “in favor of boosting international trade.”

Groups speaking for grain and livestock producers applauded the new post of undersecretary for trade, mandated by the 2014 farm law. Exports generate 20 cents of each $1 in farm income and Perdue said the new undersecretary “will help me…to be an unapologetic advocate for American products. My message for farmers is simple: You grow it and we’ll sell it,” he said in an essay in the Wall Street Journal.

A USDA spokesman said the reorganization will become effective in 30 days and does not need legislative approval. The plan is “a down payment” on Trump’s executive order for agencies to propose a more efficient and smaller government, he said. “As we move forward, as we see opportunities to make further changes to the department that will improve the delivery of services to our wide array of customers, we will do so. USDA is in the process of preparing materials in response to the order.”

The package unveiled on Thursday would abolish the undersecretary for rural development and unite crop subsidy and land stewardship programs in the same operating arm. Both are significant changes. Lawmakers and the two largest farm groups were guarded in their initial assessments of those steps.
Rural development will become an office that reports directly to Perdue – an elevation in importance, according to USDA. The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition (NSAC) questioned how much time Perdue would have for rural programs among his many duties. Groups such as the Environmental Defense Fund said “as long as conservation priorities do not take a back seat to farm production goals, both farmers and the environment can benefit” from having one undersecretary over see crop subsidies and conservation, as proposed by Perdue.

“The impacts of such a significant reorganization are hard to predict without more information from USDA and the administration,” said president Roger Johnson of the National Farmers Union, who cited the White House proposal in March for a 21 percent cut in discretionary spending by USDA.

The senior Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, Debbie Stabenow, said Perdue’s package “would eliminate an important voice for rural America” – the undersecretary. The Republican chairmen of the Senate and House Agriculture Committees welcomed the undersecretary for trade and said they would review the rest of the package.

Said House Agriculture Chairman Michael Conaway, “The committee will take a very close look at each of the proposed changes and this will be one of the many important topics we cover when the secretary appears before the committee next week.” Perdue is to testify on the rural economy on Wednesday.

The new undersecretary for trade would oversee the Foreign Agricultural Service with its global network of agricultural attachés and would lead USDA trade policy. That would diminish the power of the No. 3 officer at USDA, the undersecretary for farm and foreign agricultural services, whose office would be oriented to domestic programs and re-named as the undersecretary for farm production and conservation in charge of the farm subsidies, crop insurance and conservation.

At present, the Farm Services Agency, which runs the farm program, also controls the Conservation Reserve, the largest land-idling program. A different undersecretary has jurisdiction over land, water and wildlife stewardship programs for working lands. The reorganization would end the division of authority.

Perdue said the goal of the new mission area of farm production and conservation “is to provide a one-stop shop for USDA’s primary customers: America’s farmers, ranchers and foresters.”
The NSAC said a change in the organization chart did not guarantee less paperwork at the farm level. “With no full proposal yet released that details this part of the reorganization, it is difficult to say whether or not it will result in more effective outcomes for farmers and the environment,” it said. BY CHUCK ABBOTT.

U.S CHINA AGREE TO FIRST TRADE STEPS UNDER 100-DAY PLAN.

WASHINGTON/BEIJING, May 12 (Reuters) - The United States and China have agreed to take action by mid-July to increase access for U.S. financial firms and expand trade in beef and chicken among other steps as part of Washington's drive to cut its trade deficit with Beijing.

The deals are the first results of 100 days of trade talks that began last month, when a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping proved far more friendly than had been expected after last year's U.S. presidential campaign, but the immediate impact was unclear.
"This will help us to bring down the deficit for sure," U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said at media briefing in Washington. "You watch and you'll see."

The United States ran a trade deficit of $347 billion with China last year, U.S. Treasury figures show.
By July 16, the 100th day after the leaders' meeting, China agreed to issue guidelines that would allow U.S.-owned card payment services "to begin the licensing process" in a sector where China's UnionPay system has had a near monopoly.

China will also allow U.S. imports of beef no later than July 16, and the United States will issue a proposed rule to allow Chinese cooked poultry to enter U.S. markets.
Foreign-owned firms will also be able to provide credit rating services in China.
"We believe that Sino-U.S. economic cooperation is the trend of the times... We will continue to move forward," Chinese Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao told a Beijing media briefing.

Trump had pledged during his presidential campaign that he would stop trade practices by China and other countries that he deemed unfair to the United States. His tough talk toward Beijing had fueled early fears of a trade war.

But Trump's rhetoric toward China has softened in the past month, expressing admiration for Xi and saying he wanted Beijing to help deal with the North Korean nuclear threat.

Shortly after their meeting, Trump said he had told Xi that China would get a better trade deal if it worked to rein in North Korea. China is neighboring North Korea's lone major ally.

On Friday, when asked whether the trade talks with the United States were related to North Korea, Zhu said economic issues should not be politicized.

UNCERTAIN BENEFITS

But while the world's two biggest economies agreed to take a number of steps by July 16, it was not clear how much these new deals would increase trade in the near term.

Ker Gibbs, the chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, said the measures were a good beginning but not a breakthrough.

"Past foot-dragging means we won't celebrate until these promises are executed," Gibbs said, calling the opening in the electronic payments market "mainly symbolic".

"This should have been done years ago when it would have made a difference. At this point, the domestic players are well entrenched so foreign companies will have a hard time entering the China market."

China is the top export market for U.S. agriculture products, with the total value of exports rising by more than 1,100 percent since 2000 to $21.412 billion in 2016, so beef sales are potentially lucrative for U.S. exporters.

China had conditionally lifted its longstanding import ban on American beef last year, but few purchases have been made. The ban was imposed in 2003 due to a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or mad cow disease, in Washington state.

And U.S. credit card operators Visa Inc and MasterCard Inc have yet to be independently licensed to clear transactions in China, despite a 2012 WTO ruling mandating that Beijing open the sector and rules issued by the central bank to let foreign firms enter the market.

Visa said in an emailed statement it looked forward to submitting an application for a bank-card clearing institution license, which, "once granted", would allow it to support economic development in China.

MasterCard welcomed the announcement, saying it looked forward "to having full and prompt market access in China". The United States also signaled that it was eager to export more liquefied natural gas, saying China could negotiate any type of contract, including long-term contracts, with U.S. suppliers.

For U.S. gas drillers, China provides a potential customer base beyond countries such as Japan and South Korea, where the long-term demand outlook is bleak due to mature economies, rising energy efficiency and falling populations.

Potential cooperation between the United States and China on LNG would not have any immediate impact on supplies, as China currently does not need new gas supplies and the United States is not yet able to deliver more.

Randal Phillips, Mintz Group's Beijing-based managing partner for Asia, said that Washington was too focused on selling more to China and should instead seek to address structural imbalances created by Chinese industrial policies and barriers to investment.

"That's going to be the challenge, and hopefully the Trump administration doesn't start declaring victory," he said. (Reporting by Ayesha Rascoe in Washington; Michael Martina, Kevin Yao and Matthew Miller in Beijing; and John Ruwitch in Shanghai; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore and Nick Macfie) BY AYESHA RASCOE AND MICHAEL MARTINA.

3 BIG THINGS TODAY, MAY 12.

1. Soybeans Down Slightly in Overnight Trading on Bigger Brazil Crop

Soybean futures were modestly lower in overnight trading after Brazil’s agricultural consultancy raised its outlook for the country’s crop and as dry weather moves into the Midwest.

Statistics agency Conab said on Thursday that the domestic crop would total a record 113 million metric tons, up from a month-earlier projection of 110.2 million. Argentina’s crop was pegged by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange at 57.6 million tons, up 1 million from a prior estimate.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a report on Wednesday that it expects Brazilian growers to harvest 111.6 million tons of soybeans.

Meanwhile in the U.S., some dry weather is on the way to the Midwest where as much as six times the normal amount of rain has fallen in the past two weeks, according to the National Weather Service. The break in the rain should allow growers to get into muddy fields to plant their corn and soybean crops, which are behind the normal pace for this time of year.

Soybean futures for July delivery fell 3 ¾ cents to $9.62 ½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal declined 20 cents to $314.70 a short ton and soy oil futures lost 0.20 cent to 32.29 cents a pound.

Corn futures were unchanged to $3.69 ¼ a bushel in overnight trading.
Wheat futures for July delivery fell ½ cent to $4.33 ¼ a bushel in Chicago. Kansas City futures declined ¾ cent to $4.40 a bushel.

2. Export Sales of Corn, Wheat Plunge in Week That Ended on May 4

Corn and wheat sales plunged week-over-week to their respective marketing-year lows, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Corn sales for delivery in the seven days that ended on May 4 totaled 277,700 metric tons, down 64% from the previous week and 66% from the prior four-week average and the lowest since the marketing year started on Sept. 1, the USDA said in a report.

Mexico was the biggest buyer, taking 109,400 metric tons, Japan was in for 89,500 tons, Venezuela took 30,000 tons, Jordan bought 26,300 tons and Ireland purchased 19,600 tons.

Wheat sales also plummeted last week as exporters actually saw net reductions in sales for the marketing year that ends on May 31. While it’s not terribly unusual this close to the end of the fiscal season to see sales decline, total sales last week came in a negative-24,200 tons.

Purchases of 66,500 tons by Indonesia, 63,000 tons by China, 51,600 tons by Egypt, 32,400 tons by Chile and 30,900 tons by Algeria were more than offset by cancellations. Unknown buyers curbed a purchase of 315,400 tons, Japan cancelled a sale of 34,700 tons and Nigeria nixed a cargo of 4,500 tons.

Sales for the 2017-2018 marketing year that starts on June 1 totaled 273,400 metric tons with China the big buyer, taking 60,000 tons. Mexico was in for 56,000 tons, an unknown buyer purchased 46,000 tons and the Philippines took 45,000 tons.

Soybean sales weren’t terrible at 381,400 tons, up 20% from the prior week but down 4% from the four-week average.

Unknown buyers took 89,400 tons, Japan bought 60,000 tons and Bangladesh purchased 58,300 tons, according to the USDA. The Netherlands was in for 57,700 tons and Indonesia bought 31,400 tons.

3. Drier Weather Expected Through at Least The Weekend in Most of Eastern Midwest

Drier weather is in store for much of the eastern Midwest where rain has been prevalent for the past few weeks, at least for a while.

No rain is in the forecast for northern Illinois or Indiana through the weekend, with the first chance of storm popping up on Monday night, though the risk of a thunderstorm is “limited,” according to the National Weather Service.

Flooding will still continue as rivers have already breached their banks in many areas including northern and north-central Illinois, the NWS said in an early report on Friday.

In the southern Plains, meanwhile, it’s going to be a “picture perfect” weekend with warm weather and sunshine forecast, the agency said. That should help some fields dry out a bit as they head into the home stretch before the harvest. BY TONY DREIBUS.

BIRS SHUTS DOWN UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE OVER 2.3BILLION UNREMMITTED TAXES.

The Benue State Internal Revenue Service (BIRS), on Wednesday,  sealed the Federal University of Agriculture, Makurdi (FUAM) over unremitted Personal Income Tax (PIT) to the tune of over N2.3 billion.

This was even as the institution’s chapter of Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) has described the move as fraudulent and an attempt to commence another round of illegal deductions on the salaries of its members and instigate crisis in the university.

BIRS Chairman, Mrs. Mimi Adzape-Orubibi, who led an enforcement team to the University, personally sealed off the Vice Chancellor’s office and the office of the Registrar as well as the Bursar’s office.

Speaking with newsmen shortly after the exercise, Mrs. Adzape-Orubibi said the BIRS had to take that step after the institution failed to honour several letters written to it to pay up the outstanding Personal Income Tax from 2007 to 2011.

She explained that the BIRS got an interim order to distrain FUAM because it failed to deduct PAYE tax in some cases or deducted less in other cases adding that the institution would now have to pay almost N3 billion inclusive of penalties and interest.

While noting that the state government under the leadership of Governor Samuel Ortom is very concerned about education, she however posited that the decision to picket the institution became necessary owing to the continued evasion of tax by the school authority.

But in a swift reaction, acting Chairman of ASUU, Comrade Bemgba Anjembe who insisted that PAYE was deducted monthly from staff salary suspected a connivance between BIRS and the university authority to remit taxes already deducted from staff, this denying them to get tax clearance.
“On August 27, 2014 BIRS wrote a letter to the VC in which it informed that the university is owing BIRS tax liability due to the failure to deduct PAYE tax to the tune of over N2billion. That is their claim but we don’t agree to that figure. How did BIRS arrive at that value? The University is not a business outfit but a social service. This is fraud.”

Meanwhile, students of FUAM besieged the BIRS office located on Gboko Road, Makurdi yesterday to protest the closure of their institution and after dialogue with the BIRS Chairman, it was agreed that the seal would be removed as a result of their negotiation.
When contacted, the University’s management which spoke through its Public Relations Officer (PRO), Dr. Joseph Fanafa said it was maintaining a dignified silence on the matter until the outcome of a meeting with BIRS scheduled for tomorrow (Friday). BY BENUE.COM.NG

DONT SIGN ANTI-OPEN GRAZING BILL, FULANI HERDSMEN WARN ORTOM.

The Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association of Nigeria (MACBAN) yesterday cautioned Governor Samuel Ortom of Benue State against signing the bill outlawing open rearing and grazing of animals which was last week passed by the Benue State Assembly.

North Central Chairman of MACBAN, Alhaji Danladi Chiroma, said the bill was intended to sack all Fulani herders including those indigenous to the state, adding that, “there is already panic among the Fulani in Makurdi and we have been trying to calm them. Most of them have lived their whole lives in Makurdi and now the House of Assembly is telling them to leave the state when the Nigerian constitution gives every individual the right to live and practice his occupation in every part of this country.”

Chiroma, who visited Daily Trust office in Jos, described Governor Ortom as a man of peace but said when signed into law, the bill intends to cause chaos in Makurdi and pitch the herders in nearby states against their Tiv brothers, who live outside Benue State.

“Right now if you go to Keana, Obi, Doma and Awe local government areas of Nasarawa State, you will find heavy presence of Tiv community living peacefully with their Fulani brothers and sisters and so when you sack the Fulani from Benue state, they will have nowhere to go but any of the four local government areas which will likely create another form of tension,” he said. BY BENUE.COM.NG

CAN SUPPORTS BAN ON OPEN GRAZING OF CATTLE IN BENUE.

National President of the Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, Rev (Dr) Olasupo Ayokunle, has expressed delight that the anti grazing bill has been passed by the Benue State House of Assembly.

Ayokunle who paid a courtesy call on Governor Samuel Ortom today at Benue people’s House, said the bill would put an end to unwarranted killing and destruction of property, land and crops.

Ayokunle called on other states to emulate Benue and disclosed that he had visited Southern Kaduna.
He condemned incessant attacks on Benue communities by herdsmen and announced the donation of N7 million worth of relief materials to those affected.

The CAN President commended Governor Samuel Ortom for championing the campaign on ranching and explained that he came to the state to commiserate with the governor and the people.

He said he would also be visiting Enugu to identify with victims of herdsmen attacks and stressed the need for justice, fair play and respect for all the ethnic groups so hat peace would reign in Nigeria.
Responding, Governor Ortom thanked the CAN president for identifying with Benue people at the time the anti grazing bill was being passed by the lawmaking body and asked for support of the Body of Christ.

He said he would soon sign the bill into law and appealed to security agencies to make its implementation a success.

Ortom explained that the House of Assembly subjected the bill to public hearing and added that it was the entire people that took a decision that open grazing should be outlawed so as to bring about peace.

He wondered why cattle should be allowed to move freely in Abuja, the Federal Capital Territory and asked those insisting on grazing to have a rethink as only the modern practice of ranching would be suitable for Nigeria which now has a population of over 180 million.

He recalled that in the 50s, the country had a population of  about 40 million and maintained that the 93,000 square kilometers Nigeria had has decreased because of the ceding of Bakassi.

Highlight of the visit during which prayers were offered for the state, was the dressing of Ayokunle in Benue unity attire by Governor Ortom. BY BENUE.COM.NG

SA STUD BOOKS LAUDS 2017s BEST BREEDERS.

The awards are presented annually based on performance recordings and require breeders to play close attention to factors including records of matings and births, as well as production measurements.

In addition, animals must meet relevant breeding value requirements. All animals recorded on SA Stud Book’s Logix system are eligible for the awards.

One of the highlights was the announcement of Farmer’s Weekly SA Stud book Mentor Breeder of the Year. This year the award went to inspirational Free State farmer, breeder and value-chain role player Nick Sernick of the Sernick Group.

The group also focuses on training and farmer development. Manager of the emerging farmer development programme, Patrick Sekwatlakwatla, was on hand to receive the award for Sernick, which was presented by Annelie Coleman on behalf of Farmer’s Weekly.

The Unistel SA Studbook Elite 2017 Developing Breeder of the Year Award went to Eastern Cape Nguni stud breeder Zolani Tyali, whose son Mandange was on hand to receive the award.
Tyali operates his Tshezi Nguni Stud on the 202ha Brooklyn Farm in Morgan’s Bay (Komga), about 76km from East London. Tiyali purchased the farm privately in 2004 and his son assists him with managing the day-to-day operations.

The South Devon Bull Nieubaden Bismark owned by Tielman Nieuwoudt was winner of the Vleissentraal Elite Bull Growth Test Class. BY SABRINA DEAN.

BULID BETTER GARDEN SOIL WITH ORGANIC FERTILIZERS.

As more and more people recognize the many benefits of organic gardening methods, a fresh crop of organic fertilizers are sprouting on store shelves. Many are overpriced, and some are stunning rip-offs that reputable stores and catalogs should be ashamed to sell. The really amazing thing is that two of the best organic fertilizers are easily available to most of us absolutely free!  It’s definitely a buyer-beware world out there. If you’re not careful, you could pay five, 10 or 4,000 times more than necessary to get the nitrogen and other nutrients you need. Here's what we found when we evaluated the pricing for 21 fertilizers:

The Best Free Fertilizers

All products labeled as “fertilizer” must be labeled with their content of the three major plant nutrients — nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium (N-P-K). Most organic fertilizers are bulkier than synthetic chemical products, so their N-P-K percentages are typically lower than synthetic products, and their application rates are higher.

Also, because organic products are biologically active, their N-P-K numbers may change somewhat from batch to batch and over time. Because of this, it can be hard for producers to comply with the labeling laws. As a result, some excellent organic fertilizer options, such as compost, often are not even labeled as a “fertilizer.” One of the best free fertilizers, grass clippings, break down so quickly that they can’t be bagged and sold.

But make no mistake, compost and grass clippings do what fertilizers are supposed to do: They enrich the garden soil with nutrients that plants and microscopic soil life-forms are eager to use. In most areas, you can easily collect grass clippings from your neighborhood, bagged and set out ready to bring home. And many communities make yardwaste compost (made mainly from grass clippings and leaves) available for free.

So, if you can get free clippings or compost, how much should you use? Here are guidelines prepared with help from soil scientists at Woods End Laboratory in Maine.

Grass Clippings: Just Half an Inch Will Do!

Grass clippings are one of the best organic fertilizers. Not only because it’s easy to find free local sources, but also because the clippings do double duty preventing weeds and conserving garden soil moisture when used as mulch — two things other fertilizers cannot do. Nitrogen content of clippings will vary, with fresh grass collected in spring from fertilized lawns topping 5 percent nitrogen, while clippings from later in the year or from unfertilized lawns will likely contain around 2 percent nitrogen. (Be sure to avoid clippings from those “perfect” lawns that have been treated with herbicides.) BY CHERYL LONG AND BARBARA PLEASANT.

WHERE'S MY NITROGEN? HOW TO MAKE A NITROGEN MAP.

Many growers apply nitrogen in the fall to take advantage of the wide application window. But there are risks with fall application. Applying seven months prior to planting leaves nitrogen vulnerable to loss from rain events and warm winters.

Because nitrates easily move in the soil profile, it is important to map that movement to get a picture of your nitrate availability.

Pulling soil samples before planting, after emergence and prior to the rapid uptake period — v10 — gives you a timeline of N availability. In season sampling is different than the full-spectrum sampling done semi-annually. This is a specific sampling technique designed to find the ammonium and nitrates in the soil profile. Use row profile sampling, taking 10 cores every 3 inches across a 30 inch row to give an average of what that profile contains. This process allows you to find the bands of N from the injector knife or coulter and to see how this band is dispersing through the soil profile.

When you apply NH3, it’s important that your analysis look at nitrate — N03 — and ammonium — NH4 — levels. Ammonium is relatively stable, but converts to nitrate. Nitrate is mobile. Knowing how much of these two forms of nitrogen are in your field will tell you the amount of total N that could be available to the plant and how much of the total N is at risk of movement and loss. As the crop gets closer to silking, N03 levels are all that are necessary since most of your ammonium will be converted to nitrate.

Manage the root zone. Pull one-foot and two-foot cores in each of your management zones. The one-foot sample shows what’s available in the root zone. The two-foot samples show if the nitrogen has moved deep into the profile.

Here is an example. This field had 200 pounds of anhydrous ammonia applied in the fall. Samples were pulled prior to planting in two management zones.BY 360 YIELD CENTER.

USDA DATA SEEN AS NO BIG SHAKEUP FOR FARM MARKETS.

DES MOINES, Iowa — Yes, today’s USDA U.S. old-crop soybean ending stocks estimate is lower than a month ago, but not far enough for investors.

Also, the South Americans keep growing larger crops, putting pressure on the farm markets.
As a result, the Wednesday CME Group’s futures prices jumped briefly then turned mixed, reacting to the USDA May Supply/Demand and WASDE Reports.

At the close, the July corn futures finished 7¼¢ higher at $3.73¾, and December futures ended 6½¢ higher at $3.91½.

July soybean futures closed 3¾¢ lower at $9.70¼; November soybean futures finished ¾¢ lower at $9.66¾. July wheat futures closed 2¼¢ higher at $4.31¾. July soy meal futures finished $0.80 per short ton lower at $317.70. July soy oil futures finished 0.61¢ lower at 32.28¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.39 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points lower.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2016/2017

In its monthly report, USDA pegged the U.S. 2016/2017 soybean ending stocks at 435 million bushels vs. last month’s estimate of 445 million and the average trade estimate of 438 million.
For corn, the old-crop ending stocks were estimated at 2.29 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 2.32 billion bushels and the USDA’s April estimate of 2.32 billion.

The 2016/2017 U.S. wheat ending stocks estimates came in at 1.15 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 1.16 billion bushels and the government’s April estimate of 1.15 billion bushels.

U.S. Ending Stocks 2017/2018

In its May report Wednesday, USDA pegged the U.S. 2017/2018 soybean ending stocks at 480 million bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 555 million.

For corn, the old-crop ending stocks were estimated at 2.11 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 2.12 billion bushels.

The 2016/2017 U.S. wheat ending stocks estimates came in at 914 billion bushels vs. the average trade estimate of 1.01 billion bushels.

World Crop Production

The USDA/WASDE sees the 2016/2017 soybean production, in Brazil, growing to 111.60 million metric tons, compared with the average trade estimate of 111.3 million metric tons and the USDA’s April estimate of 111.0 mmt.

Brazil’s corn crop is pegged at 96.0 mmt. vs. the average trade estimate of 94.2 mmt. and the USDA’s April estimate of 93.5 mmt.

In its report, USDA/WASDE pegged Argentina’s soybean crop at 57.0 mmt. vs. its estimate last month of 56.0 mmt. and the average trade estimate of 56.1 mmt.

Argentina’s corn crop is pegged at 40 mmt. vs. the average trade estimate of 38.4 mmt. and the USDA’s previous estimate of 38.5 mmt.

Trade Response

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says that the soybean market has turned lower, though domestic estimates came in about as expected.

For corn, why USDA is putting exports next year so low must mean that they believe South America’s corn crop is coming back, Scoville says.

“Even so, corn exports estimate seems pretty extreme.  No real problem with the old crop data,” Scoville says.

Wheat prices are hanging in there, today. I think this has as much to do about ideas that the damage seen in the last week or so are not here. And, even so, these are pretty decent numbers with ending stocks for next year showing a very solid drop as they should,” Scoville says.

Mike North, President Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the USDA’s corn projections held close to pre-report guesses.

“Soybeans saw limited growth in domestic supplies, as projected exports continue to build into the next marketing year.  However, the offset to this friendly story comes in the fact that Brazil and Argentina have continued to add to their record production numbers,” North says.

North add, “With that information in hand, we essentially have not changed the story for traders seeking something more robust to move markets outside of the existing range.”

Sal Gilbertie,  Teucrium Trading owner, says the biggest takeaway from this report is the lowering of global ending stocks, mainly for the U.S. and China, for the 2017/18 marketing year, due to lower production and increased use.

“Corn production is forecast down from a year ago, with the largest declines in China and the United States. Partly offsetting are larger crops projected for the EU and Canada. Global corn use is up 9 million tons (1 percent), while global corn imports are projected to increase 7 million tons,” Teucrium pointed out from the WASDE Report summary.

The immediate upward response in corn prices to this report is a reflection of simple supply/demand fundamentals, Gilbert says.

“The USDA predicts that the world will use more corn but produce less corn in the coming year. The official first-of-the-season report predicts that the world’s two largest producers of corn are projected to produce less corn than last year, but global corn demand is expected to be up by 1% from last year,” Gilbert says. Corn is king, which means other markets will look to corn for price direction.”
Overall, grain prices are sitting at multi-year lows due to four years of record global production, but this report could be a warning shot of changing fundamentals moving forward into the new growing season, Gilbert says.

“It’s still very early and planting progress reports are still evolving with a few more weeks to go before markets get some actual clarity. Right now, end-user complacency with regard to grain prices could be a risky path to take,” Gilbert says.

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that farm markets are finding support today from the USDA’s 2017-18 data.

“The lower 2017/2018 corn world ending stocks and a continuing strong ethanol demand gave initial support to the corn market. Plus, the larger crush and lower ending stocks gave soybeans initial support,” Roose says. BY MIKE MCGINNIS.