THE U.S DOLLAR IS LOWER, HELPING AG COMMODITIES PUSH HIGHER.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- The CME Group’s farm futures finish off the daily highs, but still stronger, as extreme heat forecasts heat up risk premium talk.

At the close, the July corn futures finished 4 1/4¢ higher at $3.77 1/4, while December futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.95 3/4.

July soybean futures settled 1 1/2¢ higher at $9.23, November soybean futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $9.31.

July wheat futures finished 6 1/4¢ higher at $4.35 3/4.

July soy meal futures finished $0.50 per short ton higher at $301.10. July soy oil futures closed $0.08 higher at 31.39¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.74 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.

Michael Rusch, Sales Director- Ag/Commercial | Stewart-Peterson, says that the corn futures are staging a rally, sending contracts through their range highs that served as a resistance barrier since early March.

"Dec corn is making the biggest technical move, up 6 cents to 3.98, above its double top at 3.95-3/4. Jul corn is up 6-3/4 cents to 3.79-3/4, eclipsing that contract’s range high of 3.79-1/2,” Rusch says.
Rusch adds, "Dryness in ND and SD supporting spring wheat, funds heavily short, dollar index making new lows, above normal temps in the forecast for the next 2 weeks. Our advisors were a bit surprised expecting corn to be lower due to better than expected crop conditions yesterday.Double digit gains in wheat and soybeans are also noted."

“We believe that this is a sign of long-awaited short-covering by the funds as weather forecasts begin to warrant weather premium across the grain and oilseed complex,” Rusch says.

Crop progress is adequate, but widely variable following a delayed planting program in the eastern Corn Belt, and now drying conditions in the central and northern Corn Belt, Rusch says.

Soybean futures jumped higher in early trade, as contracts attempt to climb back to their previous trading ranges following a price fallout to end the month of May, Rusch says.

Jul beans peaked at 9.34-1/4 on gains of 9-3/4 cents; Nov got to 9.39-3/4 on gains of 11-3/4 cents before stalling.

“High heat forecast for the Dakotas and depleted top soil moisture being reported in NE and IA where emergence in some counties is already questionable, is supporting today’s market strength. The revival precedes Friday’s USDA monthly Supply/Demand reports,” Rusch says.

Monday’s Grain Market Review

On Monday, the CME Group’s farm markets close up slightly.
At the close, the July corn futures settled ¼¢ higher at $3.73, and December futures finished 1¢ higher at $3.92.

July soybean futures finished ¾¢ higher at $9.22; soybean futures settled 2½¢ higher at $9.28.
July wheat futures finished unchanged at $4.29.
July soy meal futures closed $1.30 per short ton lower at $300.60. July soy oil futures closed 0.30¢ higher at 31.31¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is 36¢ per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.
Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy grain analyst, says the markets seem to be struggling for new information at the moment.

“Additionally, the heavy supplies from South America continue to limit any upside, despite concerns over eastern Belt wetness and dryness in the Plains,” Meyer says.

On Monday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total, 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year, and 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began September 1. BY  MIKE MCGINNIS.

FARMLAND SALES HARD TO FIND AS GROWERS HOLD TIGHT, KEEPING LAND VALUE FAIRLY STABLE.

Four years ago there wasn’t enough farmland to go around. Growers were looking to expand their holdings, outside investors who’d never set foot in the state of Iowa much less in a cornfield, and people looking to bolster their retirement funds were snapping up land as fast as aging farmers hoping to spend their retirement on a Florida beach could sell it.

It was a perfect storm for both sellers and buyers.

Things are much different today, brokers told Successful Farming. Demand is still strong, but nobody’s selling as land values have declined amid falling crop prices, leading to what dealers are saying is the fewest available farms for sale in a generation. That, in turn, has kept prices afloat despite declining crop futures.

“We don’t have very much for sale,” said Sam Kain, the national sales manager for Farmers National in West Des Moines, Iowa. “I’ve been doing this for 30 years and this is as few as I’ve ever seen. Farmers had a few good years, the conservative ones anyway, were able to put money aside and now there’s no pressure to sell, at least not for the time being. All we’re seeing selling is estates.”

The lack of available land has kept the price of farms up despite corn prices being down by more than half from their peaks in 2012. The average per-acre value of farmland in the U.S. in 2016 was $3,010 an acre, down from only $3,010 an acre the prior year.

In Iowa and Illinois, the biggest producers of both corn and soybeans, the average price of farmland was $7,850 and $7,400, respectively. The value in Iowa fell 1.9% year-over-year while Illinois prices declined 1.3%. Missouri and Wisconsin land values rose while those in Minnesota and Indiana were unchanged.

“The lack of supply is keeping farmland values fairly stable,” said David Klein, the vice president and managing broker of Soy Capital in Bloomington, Illinois.

Land values are holding steady likely because farmers who saw they could get $12,000 an acre for less-than-stellar land in 2012 or 2013 are now only being offered $8,000 to $10,000. While that would’ve been a pretty penny prior to the boom five years ago, it doesn’t carry the same luster it once did.

The good news for farmers looking to purchase more land is that their competitors – investors – aren’t in the market right now because the rate of return on the land isn’t strong like it was in 2012 when corn and soybean prices were high, Klein said.

That means some farms, though many with marginal land, can be had for a decent price. Also popular is land on which wind farms can be built, especially in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, said Klein.
“The biggest price decreases have been in the farmland that’s kind of like a fixer-upper house, which can use some cleaning up and has drainage issues or needs conservation work to give it some curb appeal,” he said. “The I-states have a lot of expansion projects going on right now. If you took a flight to central Illinois just north of Decatur, there are wind turbine foundations being built.”

Companies are building wind farms in northwestern Iowa, and more are on the way, Klein said.
Real estate industry professionals said the best bet for growers who want to expand their holdings by purchasing land close to their current farms is getting to know their neighbors in case something comes available. Hiring a broker also doesn’t hurt because they have resources most people don’t.
It’s unlikely, however, that growers will find many good deals in the current environment of strong demand and little availability, said Ernie Goss, an economics professor at Creighton University in Omaha, Nebraska.

Goss said surveys conducted by his department are showing that farmland prices will hold up better than income as commodity futures likely won’t rise much for at least a couple of years unless there’s a significant weather event. Foreclosures haven’t increased to an alarming degree, so those waiting for their neighbors to throw in the towel might have to wait a long time.

It’s likely those who want to buy farms and have a chance to do so know they aren’t getting the best deal in the history of land transactions, but many are willing to spend the money to get what they want as long as the land is close to their current holdings and decent quality.

Demand for land likely will stay strong for a while as long as interest rate are still low and consolidation within the industry continues, Klein said. That means those hoping to expand will have to keep a keen eye out for anything in their area that becomes available since their neighbors are holding tight to their farms.

“Overall, farmland values have remained stable through the first half of the year,” Klein said. “Stabilizing crop prices, limited supply, and low interest rates are contributing to land prices stabilizing, as are areas that have alternate uses rather than just agricultural. The highest quality square tillable farms are selling very well, but there are so few available.” BY TONY DREIBUS.

WITH NAFTA ON THE HORIZON, U.S DEALS WITH CANADA AND MEXICO AG ISSUES.

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue went north and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross looked south as the Trump administration focused on North American food and farm trade issues. Based on “quite meaningful” progress, Ross allowed an additional 24 hours to complete a deal on sugar imports from Mexico, while Perdue discussed the future of two-way farm trade with Canadian Agriculture Minister Lawrence Macaulay.

The two North American countries are the heart of U.S. agricultural trade. They account for one third of all U.S. imports and exports of food and ag products, a combined $83.7 billion of the estimated $251.5 billion in U.S. ag trade this fiscal year. While China is the No. 1 market for U.S. farm exports, Canada is the largest U.S. food and ag trade partner, Canadian officials noted in a statement about the Macaulay-Perdue meeting in Toronto.

Food and ag trade with Canada is forecast for a total of $42.7 billion, with the U.S. sending $21 billion to its northern neighbor and importing $21.7 billion of Canadian goods. Mexico-U.S. trade is estimated at $41 billion, some $18.5 billion of it being U.S. goods shipped south and $22.5 billion in Mexican food and ag going to U.S. buyers. Mexico is the second-largest U.S. ag trade partner, followed by the EU and China.

A month ago, Ross threatened to collect antidumping and countervailing duties on sugar from Mexico beginning on June 5 unless the country agreed to limit its shipments. “The two sides have come together in quite meaningful ways, but there remain a few technical details to work out,” said Ross in extending the deadline for agreement to Tuesday. “We are quite optimistic that our two nations are on the precipice of an agreement we can all support, and so have decided that a short extension of the deadline is in everyone’s best interest.”

An agreement would resolve the dispute before negotiations begin later this year, possibly in mid-August, to revamp the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. farm groups hope the talks result in larger sales but fear disruptions in trade with two leading countries.

Mexico is the largest U.S. sugar supplier, estimated by USDA to provide 37% of imports this year. NAFTA called for gradual liberalization in sweetener trade between the countries. In 2014, U.S. growers and processors accused Mexico of dumping sugar at unfairly low prices. The U.S.

government agreed, which led to an agreement to limit shipments in exchange for suspension of the tariffs. The Commerce Department decided last December that the 2014 agreement was not working.
Citing two unnamed sources, Reuters said said the two countries “were working on final details of a deal.”

After meeting his Canadian counterpart, Perdue said the session was “very frank, like family members discussing some things that are not necessarily comfortable. We laid out a great framework to begin renegotiating NAFTA.” U.S. issues included Canada’s dairy support system, which restricts U.S. imports, and a wheat grading system that U.S. farmers say effectively prevents imports by giving them too low a value. “And also certain provincial wine issues, where wines are not displayed out in front where other Canadian wine is,” said Perdue. The recent spat over ultrafiltered milk is not a NAFTA issue, said the secretary, adding, “While we didn’t try to negotiate back and forth, I think it was clearly understood that we consider all options on the table, and we’ll pursue them in the best interests of U.S. producers.”

In a statement, Macaulay said both sides want to strengthen the agricultural trade relationship. “I’m confident that we can reinforce this relationship in a balanced manner, allowing us to boost farmers’ bottom lines and create good, middle-class jobs on both sides of the border,” he said.

On Twitter, Perdue said he had “friendly but frank talk w/Minister @L_MacAulay about U.S. exports to Canada. Foundation for future negotiations w/our friend to the north.” Macaulay tweeted, “Productive discussions today with our key trading partner and friends. @USDA @SecretarySonny, looking forward to working with you.” Perdue replied, “Very productive, I agree. Great discussion and we look forward to more of them.” BY CHUCK ABBOTT.

CORN PRICES WILL FOLLOW SUMMER WEATHER, SAYS ANALYST.

This year's corn planting has been a struggle for many, as wet conditions and cool temperatures have either delayed planting or growth. Stand count could be an issue, and this may have been relayed in this week's Crop Progress report released by the USDA on Tuesday, May 30.

Perhaps what stood out on the report was the corn crop condition numbers, even more so than the planting progress numbers (at 91% for the top 18 producing states versus a 5-year average of 93%). Corn rated poor to very poor: 15% in Illinois, 17% in Indiana, 9% in Wisconsin and 12% in Ohio. Yes, it's early in the season. Yet, with a start like this, one can't help but wonder if trend-line yield expectations of 171 bushels are even possible.

If the last decade has taught us anything, it’s that the resilience of farmers, the technologies involved with growing a crop, and cooperative weather all suggest that yield potential is on the rise, and a large and dependable crop will be at hand. Still, Mother Nature does hold the final say. With a prevent plant date for some northern states of June 1, the combination of less-than-ideal spring conditions and the reality that some acres of corn will be switched to soybeans (or not planted at all) could set the stage for a smaller crop.

As summer weather goes, so will prices. If conditions improve, expect little rally potential in corn. At the same time, be prepared for downside potential, as projected carryout will still be viewed as adequate, despite lower acreage. Last year's low in December corn was 3.15. A drop from current levels to the 3.25 area shouldn't be a shock to anyone this year. However, if weather becomes more of a factor, look for the possibility of corn prices rallying faster and further than most expect.

A quick view of the cattle market over the last 3 months is certainly reflective of how a market can change from a very bearish oversupply concern to not enough inventory and a raging bull market. With record demand, corn futures could rapidly move higher, as managed money (which is significantly short the market) switches from short to long, and traders factor in weather issues. Buy stops will likely get triggered, and those that are holding corn in storage could become reluctant sellers, looking for higher value.

For you, as a corn producer, the key is a balanced approach to handle this. Reward rallies and buy calls to protect sales. Our suggestion is to purchase out-of-the-money call options now. If summer weather becomes an issue and prices rally, be disciplined and make sales at designated points. The call options will retain ownership.

If you have questions or comments contact Top Farmer at 1-800-TOPFARM, ext. 129.
Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading is substantial. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. BY BRYAN DOHERTY.

FARMERS GRAIN MARKETING PRACTICES VARY LITTLE, STUDY FINDS.

The latest results from a grain marketing survey conducted by a private firm show similar farmer characteristics that cropped up in Successful Farming’s Benchmarking Marketing survey in 2013.
While the two surveys used different parameters to reach their results, it is interesting to note how they compare when conducted four years apart.

Farmers feel satisfied to mostly satisfied with their grain marketing performance, and larger farmers tend to use more marketing tools than smaller operators. Those were just a few of the survey findings announced this week by Farm Credit Services of America (FCSAmerica), a financial cooperative owned by agricultural producers.

The survey went out to 650 grain producers in nine states throughout the Corn Belt.
At a time when many farmers have worked to lower their operating costs, the survey offers insights about how to optimize the income side of the farm balance sheet, FCSAmerica stated in a press release.

“The survey results highlight that knowing cost of production is the foundation of sound marketing,” said Doug Stark, president and CEO at FCSAmerica, in a press release. “They also highlight the important role that crop insurance plays in supporting both risk management and marketing, not just when there is a crop failure.”

While the FCSAmerica survey found that one third of producers are mostly or completely satisfied with their marketing practices and results, that is lower than the 2013 Successful Farming grain marketing survey that found over three fourths of 1,100 Corn Belt farmers rated their grain marketing performance good-to-excellent.

FCSAmerica’s survey revealed that satisfied marketers are more likely to price as soon as the market offers a profit and to price multiple crop years. They are less likely to sell most of their crop right after harvest or to price based on market fear or cash flow needs, according to the FCSAmerica’s survey results.

Interestingly enough, the 2013 Successful Farming marketing survey highlighted that 33% of farmers’ primary goal in marketing is to manage risk; 20% marketed to enhance price.
Other findings of FCSA’s survey:

– More satisfied than dissatisfied marketers report that they have a good understanding of their cost of production and use it to set an initial price goal. Satisfied marketers are more likely to have written marketing plans.

— On average, producers use four to five marketing tools, the most popular being storage. Also, 82% store grain at least occasionally; one in five always stores.

— Operations of 1,000 or more acres and growers with higher levels of crop insurance employ a fuller range of marketing tools. Producers with revenue protection of at least 80% also are more likely to price prior to harvest.

— More than two thirds use cash forward contracts and spot cash sales; only a quarter of respondents use futures or options.

In 2013, the Successful Farming Grain Marketing Survey results mirrored the FCSAmerica’s survey trends on the use of grain marketing tools. SF’s survey found that 84.1% farmers used cash sales, 47.8% used forward cash contracts, and only 26% used futures contracts.

FCSAmerica’s survey found those 35 and younger are more likely to use hedge-to-arrive contracts and lock in the carry when they store. Younger and larger operators are more likely to use their cost of production to set a marketing price. BY MIKE MCGINNIS.

SMARTER S700 COMBINES, HEADERS INTRODUCED BY JOHN DEERE.

From front to back, John Deere’s 2018 S700 combines, as well as its new headers, feature the most advanced grain-harvesting technology. The series includes four models – S760, S770, S780, and S790 – and have been equipped with improved smart technology and operator comfort.

These machines build on the proven performance of the S600 combines introduced in 2012 and include the latest in automated harvesting technology. A number of these improvements make it easier for you to make adjustments automatically on-the-go.

“These new S700 combines are a culmination of enhancements to our previous model that optimize and automate harvesting operations for coarse and small grains,” says Kevin Ripple, marketing manager for harvest at John Deere. “We’ve enhanced the overall intelligence of these combines by automating more adjustments and calibration tasks, and improved the lifetime durability and productivity of front-end equipment to create a high-performance harvesting solution unlike any other on the market today.”

Combine Advisor

In an effort to maximize the performance of the S700 combines, John Deere has developed the Combine Advisor package. This package incorporates seven technologies to help you set, optimize, and automate the combine to enhance harvesting performance based on crop and field conditions.
One of the functions within Combine Advisor, Auto Maintain is supported with ActiveVision cameras. “These cameras give you a view into the tailings and clean grain elevators via the display, and analyze the information to maintain optimal threshing performance based on operator-set targets,” Ripple explains.

Another feature, Active Yield technology, automatically calibrates the mass flow sensor. This saves time by eliminating the need for manual calibrations and ensures that the best data is collected.
Moving inside, one of the first things to catch your attention will be the new state-of-the-art CommandCenter. This system provides a uniform user experience across the company’s larger tractor and self-propelled sprayer lines, and it underscores customization and operator comfort.

Highlights of the CommandCenter include a Gen 4 interface and monitor with 4600 processor, CommandArm and multifunction control lever with greater ergonomic design and customizable buttons, premium activation with AutoTrac, RowSense and HarvestDoc, and Extended Monitor and mobile device features. Due to more intuitive harvest run and setup screens, setup and start-up are quicker and easier.

You can choose between leather or cloth seats that swivel 7½˚ left and 15˚ right for improved visibility. Seats also feature enhanced ventilation for greater comfort. From the seat, you’ll also notice added grain tank mirrors for improved visibility.

Corn head and platform

Along with the S700 combines, John Deere is introducing the 700C/FC (folding corn head) series corn heads with the RowMax row unit. This row unit provides up to a 50% increase in the life of the gathering chains and includes solid-alloy bushings that reduce pin and bushing wear.

“We’ve also increased the life of the stalk rolls by up to 25% by utilizing a harder material and adding a new wear coating on the front and trailing edges of the blades for increased performance,” says Brittney Guidarelli, product manager for front- end equipment. “As a result, we’ve decreased the cost of operation by reducing how frequently wear parts need to be replaced. You will experience a savings of up to $20,000 over five years compared with previous models.”

The 700C corn heads are available in 6- to 18- row models and in 20-, 22- and 30-inch row widths. The StalkMaster stalk-chopping option is available on all models. Folding corn heads are available on 8- and 12-row units.

If you harvest high-moisture corn, there are several enhancements on the corn head to handle this crop, including an auger floor insert to ease crop handling and a lower auger height to minimize crop damage.

For small grains, Deere introduces the 700D Rigid Draper, which provides a 20% increase in capacity in tough harvesting conditions over its predecessor. The 700D features a top crop auger that’s 50% larger in diameter (now 18 inches) with heavy-duty drives, high-performance gauge wheels, and a center-section seal kit that reduces center-section grain losses by up to 45% in canola.
       
“The new S700 combines are ideal for producers who want to get the most out of their combine, regardless of operator experience or changing field conditions, with quick harvest setup and automatic on-the-go adjustments,” says Cyndee Smiley Dolan, division marketing manager. “The technology, control, and comfort features integrated into this new combine and heads make it the most effective and efficient grain-harvesting solution available.” BY LAURIE BERDORD.

WARM, DRY WEEK MAY STRESS NORTHERN U.S PLAINS SPRING WHEAT

CHICAGO, June 2 (Reuters) - Warm and dry weather is expected to persist in the northern U.S. Plains Spring Wheat Belt through next week, potentially stressing developing wheat, corn, and soybean crops, agricultural meteorologists said.

“It’s dry for the next 10 days, for the most part,” David Streit, a meteorologist with the Commodity Weather Group, said on Friday. “The complicating factor is a fair amount of heat starting to happen up there as well. That’s going to compound the dryness issue.”

Temperatures should reach the 90s Fahrenheit (32° Celsius) this weekend and again next weekend, Streit said.

Dry conditions have recently intensified in the Dakotas and eastern Montana, even as excessive rains have swamped fields farther south, in the southern Plains and the Midwest.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, prepared by a consortium of climatologists, showed 24% of North Dakota was in “moderate drought” as of May 30, up from 6% a week earlier. Nearly the entire state - 99.9% - was rated “abnormally dry,” up from 44% the previous week.

North Dakota is by far the largest producer of spring wheat, a high-protein variety used for bread and for blending with lower-quality wheats.

Grain traders are monitoring the health of the newly planted spring wheat crop in light of concerns about the quality and protein content of the U.S. hard red winter wheat crop, which is being harvested this month in the southern Plains.

If protein levels in the winter wheat crop are low, millers will turn to spring wheat to boost the quality of their flour blends.

Spot spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange reached $5.90 per bushel on Friday, the highest since January. The premium for spot spring wheat futures over K.C. hard red winter wheat futures was $1.53 per bushel, the widest since December, underscoring fears about supplies of high-protein wheat.

The spring wheat crop was 96% seeded and 79% emerged by May 28, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said. The government rated 62% of the crop as good to excellent, down significantly from 79% a year earlier.

“Hot and dry weather is not unusual in western North Dakota or Montana, (but) this early is the concern,” Jim Peterson, marketing director with the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said on Friday.

For the most advanced spring wheat fields, Peterson said, “You’re already going to temper your yield potential, even if rains do come later.” BY JULIE INGWERSEN.

THE IMPACT OF WET CONDITIONS ON CORN

In 1964 Beck’s planted their first ever Practical Farm Research (PFR)® Plot. Today, Beck’s PFR evaluates over 126 studies, comparing over 150 products across multiple locations throughout the Midwest to learn how different management practices and new technologies perform.
All of this is done with one goal in mind, to provide farmers with the data and information they need to add profitability to their operation.


With so many products, practices and variabilities from season to season, there are also a lot of questions on farmer’s minds. Beck’s set out to find a way to answer these questions in a new series titled #AskPFR.


Recently, many farmers have been concerned with the survivability of their corn seed given the rain events that have been flooding fields throughout the Midwest.

Join Beck's PFR team in the first episode of #AskPFR as they look to answer some of the most common questions we've been asked this year such as "How long can corn seed survive under water?" "How do I make the decision to replant?"is the largest source of unbiased, cutting-edge agronomic information in the industry. More than 110 different studies were conducted in 2016, comparing over 150 products across multiple locations to learn how different management practices and new technologies perform in field environments. In evaluating agronomic practices and input products, not comparing seed products, Beck’s PFR aims to help farmers maximize their input dollars and increase their bottom line. BY BECKS HYBRIDS.

2017 CATTLE OUTLOOK: PRICES HAVENT HIT THE BOTTOM.

The good news for cattle markets: The extreme volatility of the last couple years – the near-100% swings in prices – are behind us and probably aren’t coming back.

More good news: All industry segments are making a little money right now.
Then there’s the bad news: A wall of meat is coming soon – beef, pork, and poultry. It probably means that cattle prices haven’t hit bottom for this cycle.

That’s the summary of the CattleFax annual outlook report delivered at the 2017 Cattle Industry Convention. Here’s the group’s breakdown by industry segment.

Fed cattle

When finished cattle hit $170 per cwt a couple years ago, no one expected it to last. They were right. It bottomed out at about $98 in fall 2016. It’s rebounded since, and that is allowing some profits for feedlots that did a good job of buying calves.

This year, CattleFax’s Kevin Good expects fed prices to average $110, in a range of $98 to $124. It could be a couple more years before the full market bottoms are hit in this stage of the cattle-rebuilding cycle. For now, feeders can buy calves and hedge in profits for a few months, he says.

Feeder cattle

The price for 550-pound weaned calves is expected to average $150 per cwt this year, in a range of $135 to $165. “We believe the average break-even price for cow-calf producers is about $140,” says CattleFax CEO Randy Blach. “For the best producers, that breakeven is probably around $100. So, that segment of the industry stays profitable at least for this year.”

Longer term is more questionable. USDA numbers say we have added 2.5 million cows to the beef-breeding herd in the last three years, about half of that in the Southern Plains, and 230,000 head in Missouri. Credit that to restocking after the drought. We could add another 400,000 cows this year, says Blach. Those calves will hit sale barns in 2018 and 2019.

Cull cows

This segment hit the skids last year and is expected to average only $65 per cwt this year – or lower.

Bred cows

Replacement heifers are a different story. “Normally, we say a bred heifer should be worth about 1.5 to 1.65 times the value of a calf,” says Good.

If the calf is valued at $800, it means a bred heifer is worth around $1,300. While many bred heifer sales are at higher prices than that right now, he thinks they may be overpriced for long-term profit potential.

total meat supply

All three of the major meats are in expansion mode, and that’s scary, says Blach. In the last two years, U.S. farmers produced 5.5 billion pounds more beef, pork, and poultry, 25% of which was exported. The record supplies have cost farmers leverage in the retail market. Two years ago, about 24% of the retail price of beef went to farmers; it’s under 20% now.

In 2017, total meat supplies will be up another 3.2%, pretty evenly split between the three meats. Another sliver of good news: Beef carcass weights appear to have stabilized at 825 pounds, which is 50 pounds more than six years ago.

Trade

It’s the biggest unknown factor for cattle profits,says Blach.
“Keep your eye on it. How the trade deals are reworked by the Trump administration will be VERY important,” he says. BY GENE JOHNSTON.

USDA WLL HELP FARMERS WILL ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE , SAYS PERDUE.

While Democratic lawmakers and farm activists criticized President Trump for his decision to withdraw from the Paris Climate Treaty, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue shrugged off climate change as inevitable and said USDA was “committed to digging ever deeper into research to develop better methods of agricultural production in that changing climate.”

“Floods, droughts, and natural disasters are a fact of life for farmers, ranchers, and foresters,” said Perdue in a statement. “They have persevered in the past, and they will adapt in the future – with the assistance of the scientists and experts at USDA.”

Cargill, one of the world’s largest grain processors and foodmakers, said “We have no intention of backing away from our efforts to address climate change in the food and agriculture supply chains around the world, and, in fact, this will inspire us to work harder.” Unlike Trump, who said the Paris Accord would hurt the U.S. economy, Cargill chief executive David MacLennan said, “It would have resulted in U.S. economic growth and job creation.”

“By refusing to limit U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and lead the world in this space, President Trump is allowing increasingly unpredictable and destructive weather to wreak havoc on family farm operations, future generations, and food prices and availability for years to come,” said the National Farmers Union, the second-largest U.S. farm group. The National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, a small-farm advocate, joined NFU in saying climate change mitigation could provide income to farmers through payments for carbon sequestration on their land.

“The next farm bill presents an important opportunity to invest in the programs and policies needed to build resilient farms and ranches, and NSAC will work closely with our partners to ensure those investments are made,” said the coalition.

New York state Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, said Trump was “irresponsibly shortsighted” in the decision. “We have irrefutable data that temperatures are rising, Arctic ice is melting, sea levels are rising, and extreme weather is becoming more severe,” she said. Maine Representative Chellie Pingree, a member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee that oversees USDA spending, said, “In Maine, we already see the harmful effects of climate change. Rapidly rising temperatures are causing higher rates of asthma and tick-borne illness, warming oceans are threatening our economy by causing fish and lobsters to migrate, and rising sea levels are jeopardizing coastal communities.”

“Montanans are in a war against climate change. We have experienced increasingly massive wildfires, and our productive agricultural lands have run short on water,” said Steve Charter of the conservation group Northern Plains Resource Council that’s based in Billings, Montana.

DTN said a group of business leaders in 2015 started issuing regional “Risky Business” reports on the risks of climate change. “Among the findings were that farmers in the Midwest were among the industries best equipped to handle the risks, though crop production will continue to shift northward over time,” said DTN. “The same report noted the southeast parts of the U.S. will be most dramatically affected by higher temperatures, which would actually lower agricultural productivity in the region.” BY CHUCK ABBOTT.