U.S FARMERS MAINTAIN OPTIMISM FOR A.G ECONOMY, BAROMETER REPORTS.

The Purdue/CME Group’s June survey of 400 U.S. agricultural producers indicates producers feel their farm operations’ financial positions are stronger now than a year ago.

This shift in producers’ perspective is one reason the Ag Economy Barometer’s June reading of 131 was virtually unchanged from a month earlier. The Ag Economy Barometer, a producer-based sentiment index, has held steady for three months in a row and remains well above levels recorded prior to November 2016.

The shift in producers’ perspectives regarding their financial positions is part of a long-term trend, according to the Barometer’s results released last week. In June 2016, just 3% of survey respondents felt their operations were financially better off than a year earlier. That percentage increased to 10% last fall, then declined somewhat in early winter before rebounding to its current reading of 13%, the highest reading since we began surveying producers in October 2015.

A similar pattern emerges when examining the percentage of producers indicating their farms’ financial positions declined compared with 12 months prior. The percentage of farmers indicating that their financial positions were worse than a year earlier was 46% in June 2017, little changed from May’s 44%, but well below the 67% recorded as recently as February.

The shift in perspective compared with last summer is even more noticeable since 81% of respondents in August 2016 said their farm was financially worse off than the year before.
The long-term shift in producers’ attitudes about their operations’ financial conditions is likely reflective of several factors.

First, revenues on many farms increased as a result of record, or near-record crop yields in 2016. The revenue improvement was further supported by the fact that corn and soybean futures prices strengthened from late summer through early winter.

Second, production costs moderated for most crop operations compared with the prior year. Fertilizer prices in particular were weaker than a year earlier, helping to improve margins.

Third, as the long-term adjustment to tighter crop operating margins continues, farmland rental rates continue to adjust downward, helping to brighten the financial picture for many farm operations.

Looking Ahead to the Rest of 2017

In addition to the monthly questions measuring sentiment, the barometer survey also asks producers about the key drivers affecting their farms and the broad farm economy.

On the June survey, producers were asked to compare current expectations about their farm financial performance in 2017 to their initial budgets or plans.

Most producers (60%) indicated that current expectations are “about the same” as their initial expectations. However, for farm operations whose expectations changed, there was a turn toward “worse than” planned (28% was more common than “better than” budgeted (12%).

The number of respondents indicating they expect their 2017 financial performance will be worse than originally planned could be reflective of the difficulties some farms have experienced this spring with respect to planting and poor growing conditions, especially in the eastern Corn Belt. BY DAVID WIDMAR.

WITH HARVEST IN PROGRESS , KANSAS FARMERS REPORT ON SNOW- DAMAGED WHEAT.

Despite the late blizzard that caused considerable concern about the Kansas winter wheat crop, farmers report that, overall, the crop looks better than expected.

Marc Ramsey, who farms near Scott City in western Kansas, received 14 inches of snow on April 30 that knocked down trees and wheat fields, as shown in the photo below. Surprisingly, he said that the snow may have helped more than it hurt.

“The moisture was badly needed and apparently the stems weren’t damaged badly enough across acreage to make a huge impact,” he says. “Some wheat is lodged, but it seemed to fill decently through the heat.”Ramsey is just getting started on wheat harvest, but he says test weights have been in the 58 to 60 range. “Yields were above average, but protein is in the 9 to 10 range, so nothing special there,” he adds. “Accounts from area farmers are saying you either have quantity or quality, but more often than not you don’t get both.”

Eric Sperber, manager of Cornerstone Ag, LLC in Colby about an hour north of Ramsey’s farm, heard similar comments from the farmers in his area.

“Most people were pleasantly surprised at the lack of impact from the snow,” he said during a report with the Kansas Wheat Commission. “One farmer had an early planted field that looked like a mess after the snow. It stood back up, but fell over again at grainfill. He wasn’t expecting much, but it ended up yielding 60 bushels per acre and over 60 pounds per bushel.”

An hour northeast from Colby in Norton, Kansas, Chris Tanner also got hit with the late-April snowstorm. “When the snow was laying on the wheat, I thought it was dead and done for,” said Tanner in the Kansas Wheat harvest report. “After that there was a little bit of a dry spell that wasn’t good for it, but it’s been pretty resilient. They say wheat has nine lives, but this crop is on its tenth or eleventh.”

He adds that condition has varied with test weights from 58 to 62 pounds per bushel and yields from 20 up to 80 bushels per acre. However, he says that variation is mainly based on planting date and wheat variety.

While hail and rain have slowed down winter wheat harvest in western Kansas, across the state winter wheat harvest is progressing almost right on pace with the five-year average with 73% complete compared to 72%, according to this week’s USDA Crop Progress Report. As far as the condition goes, the USDA reports that 47% is in good to excellent condition, 31% fair, 14% poor, and 8% very poor. This is on par with the rest of the country’s winter wheat crop – 48% is in good to excellent condition – but it is trailing last year’s crop when 62% was rated as good or excellent at this time.

Not surprising given the condition ratings, the USDA is predicting a lower yielding wheat crop compared with last year. According to the USDA’s Crop Production report, winter wheat yields for Kansas are forecast at 44 bushels per acre, down from 57 bushels per acre last year.  BY JESSIE SCOTT

MISSOURI, ARKANSAS BAN DICAMBA USE.

WASHINGTON, July 7, 2017 - Continued complaints over crop damage due to drift have led to Missouri and Arkansas temporarily banning the sale and use of dicamba products.

“Missouri Director of Agriculture Chris Chinn has issued a Stop Sale, Use or Removal Order on all products labeled for agricultural use that contain dicamba in Missouri,” the state’s ag department said Friday, citing more than 130 drift complaints this year alleging thousands of acres of damage.

The order says the state “has probable cause to believe dicamba-containing pesticide products are being used in violation” of state regulations requiring adherence to the EPA label or state pesticide laws.

The state’s order applies to all formulations of the herbicide, including Monsanto’s Xtendimax, DuPont’s FeXapan, and BASF’s Engenia. In Arkansas, the ban applies to Engenia, the only formulation the state approved for over-the-top use this growing season.
          
The Missouri order says that “older dicamba products are not labeled by (EPA) for in-crop post-emergent use in dicamba-tolerant cotton and soybean crops. EPA-approved labels for Xtendimax, Engenia and FeXapan warn all users to not apply the pesticide during a temperature inversion and to not allow the pesticide to drift onto desirable broadleaf vegetation because severe injury or destruction could result.”

“With only a small window left for application in this growing season, I understand the critical need to resolve this issue,” Chinn said. “I look forward to working with our farmers, researchers and industry partners to find an immediate solution.”

In Arkansas, the executive committee of the state’s Legislative Council allowed the proposed ban to move forward following a recommendation by the state’s Plant Board, which was then approved by Gov. Asa Hutchinson. The council is composed of a panel of state legislators.

The Associated Press reported that the executive committee took no action on the proposed ban, allowing it go into effect “unless a majority of the Legislative Council or its chairmen hold a meeting Monday to review the panel's decision.” Earlier in the week, the council approved an increase in fines for “egregious” dicamba misuse to $25,000.

Dicamba misuse complaints in that state totalled 596 in 23 counties as of today. BY AGRI-PULSE COMMUNICATIONS.

WHEAT FUTURES JUMPS OVERNIGHT, INVESTORS BULLISH ON SOFT RED FIRST TIME IN 2YEARS.

1. Wheat Futures Jump as Weekend Plains Rains Disappointing

Wheat prices rose in overnight trading after some wet weather expected to offer some relief to parched spring crops in North Dakota was underwhelming.

Only small amounts of rain – about 0.25 inch in only a few counties in the state – fell on Sunday. Some forecasts had been calling for more widespread rains over the weekend.
The entire northern Plains where most spring wheat is grown in the U.S. has been extremely dry the past month, according to the National Weather Service. That’s left many investors, analysts and farmers wondering if there’s going to be much of a spring wheat crop this year.

Wheat for September delivery rose 13 ½ cents to $5.48 ½ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Kansas City futures jumped 11 ¼ cents to $5.54 ¼ a bushel.

Soybeans also jumped overnight on concerns not only about the northern Plains bean crop but also the canola and palm crops globally. Canola and palm are competing oilseeds for soybeans.
Soybeans for November delivery added 19 ½ cents to $10.35 a bushel overnight. Soymeal rose $7.90 to $345.90 a short ton and soy oil futures gained 0.37 cent to 33.69 cents a pound.

Corn rose on the weather woes in the northern Plains as December futures added 8 ¼ cents to $4.13 a bushel overnight.

2. Speculative Investors Now Bullish Soft-Red Winter, Increase Net-Longs in Hard-Red Wheat

Money managers were bullish soft-red winter wheat for the first time since July 2015 and investors were net-long on hard-red winter futures by the most in at least six years as dry weather continues to plague the northern Plains.

Net-longs, or bets on higher prices, totaled 23,997 soft-red futures contracts in the week that ended on July 3, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the first time investors were bullish on the grain in two years.

Speculative investors were net-long by 54,574 hard-red winter wheat contracts last week, the biggest such position since at least 2011, CFTC data show.

Investors have been getting more bullish on wheat as dry weather in the northern Plains has likely led to spring-crop losses. About two-thirds of North Dakota is in some sort of drought while the rest is abnormally dry, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Money managers were also less bearish on corn and soybeans.

Net-shorts, or bets on lower prices, in corn fell to 37,607 contracts, the lowest level in three weeks. In soybeans, net-short positions fell to 82,630 contracts, the lowest such position since the week ended on May 23, according to the CFTC.

The weekly commitment of traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows trader positions in futures markets.

The report provides positions held by commercial traders, or those using futures to hedge their physical assets; noncommercial traders, or money managers (also called large speculators); and nonreportables, or small speculators.

A net-long position indicates more traders are betting on higher prices, while a net-short position means more are betting futures will decline.

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3. Red Flag, Thunderstorm Warnings Issued For Montana; Heat Indexes to Reach 107 in Midwest
Much of Montana likely will see an odd mix of hot and dry weather and potentially severe thunderstorms this afternoon.

A red flag warning indicating that it’s extremely dry and wildfires are imminent has been issued for much of central Montana until 11 p.m. today due to a combination of low humidity, gusty winds and lightning from “dry thunderstorms,” according to the National Weather Service.

Further east, some scattered thunderstorms are likely that could bring rainfall, hail and damaging winds, the NWS said in a morning report.

Temperatures this week in most of the northern Plains will near 100 degrees, the agency said.
In the Midwest, a heat advisory has been issued for an area encompassing much of southeastern Nebraska, southwestern Iowa, northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri.

Temperatures this week will be in the mid-90s with heat indexes as high as 107 degrees through Wednesday, according to the NWS. BY TONY DREIBUS.

THE 4TH OF JULY BY THE NUMBERS.

Americans love food, and eating is their favorite way to celebrate our nation’s Independence Day, according to an annual survey conducted by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The most popular way to celebrate the Fourth of July is to cook out, barbecue, or host a picnic. The NRF says 65.5% of Americans will do just that in 2017 and will spend $7.1 billion on food items for the holiday.

Americans will eat 150 million hot dogs on July 4th alone, according to the National Hot Dog and Sausage Council (NHDSC). Interestingly enough, 61% of Americans prefer beef hot dogs, 12% like pork hot dogs, and 7% prefer turkey, the NHDSC says.

According to an informal poll that we conducted on Twitter, 52% of our followers will be grilling beef over the holiday, 10% will be grilling up pork, 5% will grill chicken, and 33% will throw a combination of the three on the grill to celebrate.

To give you an idea of just how much meat is grilled between Memorial Day and Labor Day, in 2016 Americans grilled $6,816 billion worth of beef, $4,284 billion worth of pork, and $3,882 billion worth of chicken during that period.

Traveling Americans

This year, a whopping 44.2 million Americans will travel 50 miles or more to celebrate Independence Day. According to AAA, that’s 1.25 million more people than last year and the most people ever to travel over the holiday.

Most, 37.5 million to be exact, of the traveling Americans will drive to their destinations, and farmers can only hope they’ll be filling up their tanks with ethanol-enhanced fuel.

Fun Facts for the BBQ

In 2016, the amount of American flags imported to the U.S. were valued at $5.4 million and most came from China, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. also exported enough American flags in 2016 to add up to a value of $27.8 million. Most of the flags, $26.1 million worth, were exported to Mexico.

Last year, the U.S. imported $296.2 million worth of fireworks from China.
Back in 2012, the 172 U.S. wholesalers sold $482.6 million worth of fireworks and firecrackers.
A particularly happy Independence Day to those celebrating in patriotic towns and counties like Liberty County, Texas; Patriot Town, Indiana; and Union County, Ohio! BY ANNA MCCONNELL.

WILL JULY CROP WEATHER CONTINUE TO BE A HEAD- SCRATCHER.

As weather goes, so likely will prices.

This year’s weather has either been close to ideal or it has made for a stressful spring and start to summer. A very challenging spring (due to copious rains in parts of the Midwest) forced many farmers to replant corn and in some instances abandon acreage or switch to other crops. “Rain makes grain” is the old saying, and as July 4 approaches, it’s hard to complain if you’re lucky enough to have had a few rain events. For many, however, rain this year is something they could do without, at least for a while. If you planted early and your crop looks good, rain is welcome, in particular the western corn-producing states. For about a third of all corn producers, too much rain this year has created many challenges. Late planting and poor field conditions for spraying crops are two concerns, as more rains this past week suggest nitrogen leaching and shallow roots, both which could suggest lower yield.

The most recent crop ratings figures released by the USDA this past Monday indicated this year’s corn crop is rated as 67% good to excellent, down from last year’s 75%. With lower acreage (4 million less than last year) as indicated on the March 31 Acreage report and a higher amount of corn rated in the poor to very poor category compared with a year ago, it’s been a head-scratcher why corn prices lately have been on the defensive, losing more than 25¢. The “rain makes grain” mentality, along with increased farmer selling of old crop, are the likely two variables pressuring prices. As the end of the month approaches and cash contracts come due, farmers are determining whether to move inventory or roll contracts to another month. A limited amount of time to empty bins between now and harvest has created an environment where producers are likely deciding to get rid of old crop.

Despite recent downward price pressure, it’s too early in the growing season to be overly pessimistic on price. The chances that corn prices will move substantially lower, with what could be a less-than-ideal crop, are probably not good. End users will likely view the recent pulldown in corn prices as an opportunity to lock in longer-term needs. As weather goes, so likely will prices, and lately weather has not been ideal. The chances of price recovery are good. The critical months for crop growth and maturity are July and August. Attitude, as well as perceptions in the marketplace, could change in a hurry over the next 60 days.

If you have questions or comments, contact Top Farmer at 1-800-TOPFARM, ext. 129.
Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading is substantial. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. BY BRYAN DOHERTY.

DESPITE HAIL, PESTS, AND WEEDS, IOWA'S CORN AND SOYABEANS, LOOK REALLY GOOD.

There aren’t many farmers who claim to “love all things related to weeds.” Luckily for farmers in Iowa, there’s a weed-loving Extension agent at the ready to help identify and tackle tough weeds. Meaghan Anderson has served as a field agronomist in east-central Iowa for the past two years. Last year, her enthusiasm and dedication helped farmers and landowners detect and manage Palmer amaranth infestations in pollinator plots and CRP plantings.

This year, Anderson is back in the fields, keeping an eye out for Palmer amaranth and other pests as well as evaluating hail damage. Here’s what she’s seeing in the corn and soybean fields of eastern Iowa.

Palmar amaranth was spotted in fields in Linn County as well as Muscatine County. “We’re just approaching the best time to identify Palmer amaranth, so I’ve only seen a few locations with it so far this year,” says Anderson. “I suspect the hot, drier weather we’ve had has been good for its development, so more identifications will happen this summer.”

Marestail also looks like it could be an issue this season, comments Anderson. “Farmers have reported having trouble managing marestail, so I’ll be monitoring populations,” she says. “I think some farmers may need to consider a fall herbicide application if the populations in their fields germinate in the fall.” In addition to weeds, hail has been another issue for growers in Anderson’s region. “Hail damage was spread over several counties, but the most significantly damaged area was mostly small and spotty in Linn County,” she says.

Overall, Anderson says the corn crop is off to a good start for 2017. “I thought corn seemed more uneven early and also had some armyworm issues, but most looks really nice now,” she says. “I don’t think anyone would object to some more rain as long as it doesn’t bring hail with it.” The counties she covers are 1¼ inches below the climatology rain average for June.

In Washington County, Anderson is also noticing a fair amount of urea burn from sidedress applications. 

For soybeans, Anderson says some suffered from stand loss and damage from HG 14 herbicides used preemergence, pest feeding (armyworms and slugs), and crusting. “Most problems have been resolved at this point,” she says. “Corn and soybeans look really good after what seemed like a long planting season.”

According to the latest data from the USDA, 79% of Iowa’s corn crop is in good to excellent condition, on track with last year’s condition and up from the five-year average of 72%. Soybeans are trailing last year slightly with 74% in good to excellent condition compared with 77%, but still pacing ahead of the five-year average of 69%. BY JESSIE SCOTT.

U.S JUNE HOG HERD HIGHEST IN MORE THAN 50YEARS.

CHICAGO, June 29 (Reuters) - The number of hogs on U.S. farms during the March-May quarter climbed 3.0 percent from a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture report on Thursday, implying abundant supplies through the coming year.

Thursday's outcome was the largest on record for the period since 1964, maintaining a string of quarterly record highs dating back to March 2016.

Still, analysts viewed the data as neutral for Chicago Mercantile Exchange lean hog futures on Friday because the results were close to expectations.

Analysts attributed the herd expansion to improved producer profits, affordable feed and the need for more supplies to accommodate at least two new packing plants scheduled to come on line later this year.

A record number of baby piglets that survived during the quarter helped farmers to be more efficient and boosted herd sizes.

USDA's report showed the U.S. hog herd as of June 1 at 103.0 percent of the year-ago level or 71.650 million head.

The result topped analysts' average forecasts and was the most for the quarter since USDA began compiling data for the period in 1964.

Analysts, on average, had expected 71.597 million head, or 103.3 percent of the year-earlier herd.
The U.S. breeding herd was 102.0 percent of the year-ago level, at 6.069 million head, up from 5.979 million last year.

The average trade forecast was 6.069 million, or 101.5 percent of the previous year.
The June 1 supply of market-ready hogs for sale to packers was 104.0 percent of a year earlier, at 65.581 million head, up from 63.302 million last year. Analysts, on average, had estimated a 3.5 percent rise, or 65.490 million.

Allendale Inc chief strategist Rich Nelson called the record hog herd size "shocking," but said it would have no effect on the market. Industry observers for several months had expected record production and most of the results came in line with expectations, he added.

The industry will monitor whether two new hog plants will be operational by September to handle the massive supplies ahead, said Nelson.

"Any delays in the start of the two plants will be clearly taken as bad news by the industry," he added.
Bob Brown, an independent market analyst in Edmond, Oklahoma, agreed that the "numbers came in pretty much as expected - nothing outlandish."

Nearby CME hog futures will likely follow prices for market-ready, or cash, hogs and not focus on trading months further out associated with Thursday's report, said Brown. (Editing by Richard Chang). BY THEOPOLIS WATERS.

US inspectors will make sure Chinese chicken imports are safe, Agriculture secretary says

• Tight U.S. food inspections should give American consumers confidence in the safety of new Chinese chicken imports, Secretary Sonny Perdue says.

• The Agriculture secretary is set to travel to China on Wednesday to formally mark the return of U.S. beef there after a 13-year hiatus.

• Tight U.S. food inspections should give American consumers confidence in the safety of new Chinese chicken imports, Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told CNBC on Tuesday.
  In last month's trade agreement with China, the U.S. agreed to allow Chinese cooked poultry to enter U.S. markets in exchange for China bringing back U.S. beef imports.

• "We're talking about cooked chicken," said Perdue, indicating uncooked chicken generally poses a greater food safety risk. "The good thing about it is our food safety inspection agency, in the USDA, does a marvelous job."

• Perdue, a former governor of Georgia, also said Chinese chicken won't hurt American poultry producers. "I don't think there's really any fear of major chicken poultry protein coming the U.S."

The secretary, who is not related to the family that owns Perdue Farms, is set to travel to China on Wednesday to formally mark the return of U.S. beef to the Chinese market after a 13-year hiatus. China banned U.S. beef imports after the discovery of a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Washington state in late 2003.

• "Those concerns were not justified. I think it was a single animal that came from Canada that had the BSE, or the mad cow disease. And we felt like the suspension of imports from the U.S. was a difficult and wrong decision," Perdue said. "We've had no experience and no evidence of ... [ mad cow disease] in over 13 years." BY MATHE J BELVEDERE.

DEPLOY A DRONE TO SCOUT FIELDS AND MORE.

With so many farmers having to deal with such a wet spring, drones have been an efficient way to identify areas that needed to be replanted and even ones that can’t be replanted. A drone is also a great tool to help identify weather-related damage without adding compaction to fields.

“The advantage of using a drone is that each picture is georeferenced, which allows a farmer to get accurate measurements for his claims adjuster with scientific evidence to back up that claim,” says Landon Smith, PrecisionHawk.

As you scout your fields this season, Smith says utilizing a drone can help you stay on top of potential issues.

“I recommend flying each field at least once a month to collect data that can be used to compare/contrast with previous data,” he says. “Whether that information is from a drone or your prescriptions, you can evaluate your crop’s progress (or lack of) easily with a drone.”
It can also help you be proactive when it comes to managing weeds.

“PrecisionMapper released an algorithm that allows you to determine weed pressure in your field,” says Smith. “With this information, you can increase your efficiency in spot spraying and identifying problem areas while they are still manageable and in some cases invisible to the naked eye.”
You can also use it to home in on areas that could benefit from improvements.

“For example, collecting data with standing water in your field will allow you to identify problem areas and come up with a solution to address them in the future, such as tiling,” says Smith.
The usefulness of a drone isn’t limited to the fields.

“Grain bins are slowly being emptied in anticipation of this year’s crop,” he says. “Rather than climb a bin, flying a drone over it is a safe alternative to identify problems or evaluate necessary maintenance.”  BY LAURIE BEDORD.